基于购票行为数据的城际铁路乘客市场细分研究  

Segmentation of Passenger Markets of Intercity Railways Based on Ticket Buying Behavior Data

作　　者：区嘉乐 程碧荣 许玉滢 OU Jia-le;CHENG Bi-rong;XU Yu-ying(School of Rail Transportation,Wuyi University,Jiangmen 529020,China)

机构地区：[1]五邑大学轨道交通学院,广东江门529020

出　　处：《五邑大学学报（自然科学版）》2021年第4期52-59,共8页Journal of Wuyi University(Natural Science Edition)

摘　　要：为精准细分城际铁路乘客市场,提升城际铁路服务品质及竞争力,本文以江门市城际铁路乘客为研究对象,首先通过调查获取乘客购票行为数据,然后构建基于乘客购票行为数据的潜在类别模型,选取性别、年龄、税前月收入、受教育程度、出行目的、出行费用、购票方式、提前购票天数、出发日期、购票次数等10个指标作为外显变量,利用Latent GOLD软件拟合AIC、BIC指标及外显变量间适配度统计量G^(2),并进行各潜在类别的可解释性分析.结果表明,江门市城际铁路客运市场可细分为3类,整体分类率可达97.3%,分类结果可靠.本文研究结果可为城际铁路部门制定差异化票价策略提供决策支持.In order to accurately segment the intercity railway passenger market and improve the quality of intercity railway service,this paper took Jiangmen’s intercity railway passengers as the research object,obtained the passenger ticket purchase behavior data,built a potential category model based on the passenger ticket purchase behavior data,selected 10 indicators including gender,age,pre-tax monthly income,education level,travel purpose,travel expense,ways to buy ticket,the number of days ahead travelers purchase their airline tickets,departure date and the number of tickets purchased as the external variables,used the Latent GOLD software to fit AIC,BIC indicators and external variable adaptation statistic G^(2),and made an explanatory analysis of various potential categories.The results show that the Jiangmen’s intercity railway passenger market can be subdivided into 3 categories,and the overall classification rate reaches 97.3%,and the classification results are reliable.This research can provide decision-making support for the intercity railway authorities in formulating a differentiated fare strategy.

关 键 词：城际铁路 乘客市场细分 潜在类别分析 外显变量 票价策略 

分 类 号：U292.3[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]