高铁开通与城市发展代际公平研究  

The Opening of High Speed Railway and Intergenerational Equity of City Development

作　　者：何琳[1] HE lin(School of Economics and Management,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China)

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学经济管理学院,北京100044

出　　处：《北京交通大学学报（社会科学版）》2021年第4期64-77,共14页Journal of Beijing Jiaotong University(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：中国铁路投资有限公司科技研究开发计划课题“中国铁路可持续发展投融资模式研究”(ZGTT-QT-2020-093);国家社会科学基金重大项目“中国高铁经济理论解析框架及演化路径研究”(17ZDA084)。

摘　　要：高铁在改变我国铁路客运方式的同时,也永久性改变了城市的可达性,成为地方政府极力争取的稀缺交通资源。从长期看,相对于未开通高铁的城市而言,高铁开通究竟是否改善了城市的资源配置、经济实力、产业结构和居民福利,从而形成城市发展的代际不公平,值得研究。构建高铁对城市经济和居民福利代际影响评价指标体系,基于84个城市2009和2018年的数据,从地级市比较、省会与非省会城市比较、直辖市比较三个层面,对高铁开通带来的城市发展代际公平问题进行分组研究。研究发现,就平均意义而言高铁开通并未形成城市发展的代际不公平,也未能抑制大城市与中小城市发展差距扩大的趋势。表现在:与未开通高铁的匹配样本相比,高铁站点城市并未呈现出显著的经济发展领先优势以及产业结构调整的显著异质性,但高铁对推动产业结构向第三产业转型有一定的作用。对于中小城市而言,高铁开通一定程度上抑制了人口外流的速度,但未能改变人口向中心城市聚集的倾向。因此,地方政府在规划高铁建设以及配套的"高铁新城"等开发时,应当考虑本地区的经济、产业、人口等状况,评估高铁对城市经济发展可能产生的推动效应,使得高铁开通成为城市发展的助推器,而不是地方债务风险或房地产泡沫的来源。High speed railway changes the mode of railway passenger transportation of China and at the same time the accessibility of the station cities,thus becomes a scarce traffic resource that local governments strive to win over.Compared with non-HSR cities,is the opening of HSR improving the resource allocation,economic strength,industrial structure,and household welfare,leading to the intergenerational inequity between station cities and non-station cities?This article constructs an index system for evaluating the intergenerational impact of HSR on city economies and residents'welfare based on the data of 84 sample cities in 2009 and 2018.Through grouping study of prefecture-level cities,provincial capitals and municipalities,this article finds that HSR does not trigger intergenerational in equity between cities,nor does it mitigate the widening gap between big cities and small and medium-sized cities.Compared with non-station cities,station cities do not show a significant lead in economic development and heterogeneity in industrial restructuring.However,HSR plays a certain role in promoting the service industry of the city.For small and medium-sized cities,HSR slows down the speed of population outflow,but does not change the trend of population aggregation to big cities.Therefore,the status of local economy,industry and population should be considered and the possible driving effect on city economy should be evaluated before local governments plan inter-city HSR projects or“HSR New Town”.The opening of HSR is supposed to be the booster of city development,not the source of local debt risk or property bubble.

关 键 词：高铁开通 代际公平 资源配置 经济发展 产业结构 居民福利 

分 类 号：F207[经济管理—国民经济]