城轨站点与站域物流服务终端设施的互动机理研究——以北京市为例  

Interaction Mechanism between Urban Rail Stations and Logistics Terminal Facilities in Station Area:A Case Study of Beijing

作　　者：鲁晓春[1] 丁旭 LU Xiao-chun;DING Xu(School of Economics and Management,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China)

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学经济管理学院,北京100044

出　　处：《北京交通大学学报（社会科学版）》2021年第4期125-134,共10页Journal of Beijing Jiaotong University(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：北京市社会科学基金项目“后疫情时期基于大数据的北京市无人物流规划研究”(20JCC005);国家铁路局科研项目“铁路物资管理标准化体系研究”(2020F031)。

摘　　要：城市轨道交通站点客流量与站域物流服务终端设施数量的互动关系较为复杂,难以简单地建立量化模型。从研究城市空间形态与物流服务设施的互动关系入手,建立城市轨道交通站点客流大数据与站域物流服务设施的中介效应模型,发现站点客流与站域物流服务设施存在促进、抑制两种互动关系。客流超过阈值后,客流规模的增加对物流服务设施数量增加产生抑制作用,站点吸引力同时对客流与物流设施选址产生影响,并存在中介效应。将中介效应模型与机器学习模型结合,利用中介效应模型揭示内在影响机制,建立基于SVR的客流-设施预测模型,并以实例数据进行验证。通过分析轨道交通站点客流与物流设施互动关系,并将其应用于设施数量预测模型,可为城市轨道交通网络化布局及站点规划提供新思路。The interaction between the passenger flow of urban rail transit stations and the number of logistics service terminal facilities in station area is complex,thus it is difficult to establish a quantitative model.By examining the interaction between urban spatial form and logistics service facilities,this paper establishes the mediating effect model of passenger flow at urban rail transit stations and logistics service facilities at station area and finds that there are two kinds of interaction between passenger flow and logistics service facilities,namely,promoting and inhibiting.When the passenger flow exceeds the threshold,the increase of the passenger flow scale has an inhibiting effect on the increase of the number of logistics service facilities,and the attraction of the sites have an impact on both the number of passenger flow and logistics facilities,with a mediating effect.The mediating effect model was combined with the machine learning model to reveal the internal influence mechanism.The passenger flow and facility prediction model based on SVR is established and verified with the example data.By analyzing the interaction between the passenger flow of rail transit stations and the logistics facilities and applying it to the forecast model of the number of facilities,a new idea is provided for the planning of rail transit stations.

关 键 词：轨道交通站点规划 土地利用 中介效应 SVR 

分 类 号：F250[经济管理—国民经济]