气候变化和都市化双重驱动下流域未来水文响应  

Research on future hydrological response of basin driven by both climate change and urbanization

作　　者：朱双 李建庆 罗显刚[1,2] 雷晓辉 王超 胡国丰[5] ZHU Shuang;LI Jianqing;LUO Xiangang;LEI Xiaohui;WANG Chao;HU Guofeng(School of Geography and Information Engineering,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan 430074,China;National Engineering Research Center of Geographic Information System,Wuhan 430074,China;School of Water Conservancy and Hydroelectric Power,Hebei University of Engineering,Handan 056038,China;China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China;Wuhan Zhongdi Yunshen Technology Co.,Ltd.,Wuhan 430000,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(武汉)地理与信息工程学院,湖北武汉430074 [2]国家地理信息系统工程技术研究中心,湖北武汉430074 [3]河北工程大学水利水电工程学院,河北邯郸056038 [4]中国水利水电科学研究院,北京100038 [5]武汉中地云申科技有限公司,湖北武汉430000

出　　处：《人民长江》2021年第11期86-91,127,共7页Yangtze River

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年基金资助项目(51809242)。

摘　　要：近年来,受气候变化和人类活动的共同影响,流域的气候和水文状况发生了显著改变,分析变化环境下未来水资源演化格局成为当前国内外学者关注的重点研究内容之一。以柘溪水库流域为研究区域,利用人文因素和自然因素作为土地利用变化的驱动因子构建土地利用模型,采用MIROC5气候模式多个情景作为未来气候典型代表,利用分布式水文模型分析了气候变化和都市化双重驱动下的流域未来水文响应。结果表明:都市化发展明显增加了流域地表径流,减少了地下径流;而气候变化对水文响应驱动力比都市化对水文响应的驱动作用更强。In recent years,the climate and hydrological conditions of river basins have undergone significant changes,which were influenced by a combination of both climate change and human activities.Analyzing the future evolution of water resources in the changing environment has become one of the key research contents of domestic and foreign scholars.Therefore,we analyzed the future hydrological response of the Zhexi Reservoir Basin driven by both climate change and urbanization.We used human factors and natural factors as driving factors of land use change to construct a land use simulation model.Also multiple scenarios of the MIROC5 climate model as typical representatives of future climate and a distributed hydrological model were adopted in the simulation.The results show that urbanization development would significantly increase surface runoff and reduce underground runoff.Climate change has a stronger driving force for hydrological response than urbanization.

关 键 词：水文响应 分布式水文模型 气候变化 未来情景模拟 土地利用 柘溪水库流域 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]