中美中央银行货币利率政策效果的比较分析——新冠疫情背景下基于VAR模型的实证分析  

A Comparative Analysis of the Effects of the Central Bank Monetary Interest Rate Policies in China and the United States——An Empirical Analysis Based on the VAR Model under the Background of the COVID-19

作　　者：陈赞宇 张利茹 CHEN Zanyu;ZHANG Liru(Henan University)

机构地区：[1]河南大学

出　　处：《中国商论》2021年第22期80-84,共5页China Journal of Commerce

基　　金：河南大学省级大学生创新创业训练计划项目资助(S202010475044)。

摘　　要：本文选取2020年1月—2021年2月共14个月度数据构建VAR模型,研究中美货币政策利率传导有效性,并进行实证研究。研究得出在疫情冲击下,中国市场利率向实体经济的传导效率较低,中国央行货币政策利率传导机制仍有待完善;而美国紧急降息,债收益率走低,风险溢价维持高位,负面冲击并没有得到良好的缓释,随后采取了更为极端的应对方式,使得美国难以支撑下一轮冲击。中国应推动利率市场改革,综合联动货币政策,完善利率走廊机制,提高实体经济对利率的敏感性,推进LPR改革,以更好地应对新冠疫情等突发事件。A total of 14 monthly data from January 2020 to February 2021 were selected to construct VAR model to study the transmission effectiveness of monetary policy interest rates in China and the United States and conduct empirical research.The transmission efficiency of China's market interest rate to the real economy is low under the impact of the epidemic,and the transmission mechanism of monetary policy interest rate of the People's Bank of China still needs to be improved.However,the United States cut interest rates in an emergency manner;bond yields fell;and risk premiums remained high.The negative impact was not well alleviated.Subsequently,the United States adopted a more extreme response,making it diffi cult for the United States to support the next round of impact.China should promote the reform of the interest rate market,integrate monetary policies,improve the interest rate corridor mechanism,make the real economy more sensitive to interest rates,advance the reform of the LPR,and better respond to emergencies such as the COVID-19.

关 键 词：货币政策 中央银行 利率 VAR 新冠疫情 

分 类 号：F830.1[经济管理—金融学]