农村人口城镇化对居民生活能源消费碳排放的影响分析  

The Impact of Urbanization of Rural Residents on Carbon Emissions from Household Energy Consumption

作　　者：曹翔[1] 高瑀 刘子琪 CAO Xiang;GAO Yu;LIU Ziqi

机构地区：[1]海南大学经济学院 [2]航天科工智慧产业发展有限公司

出　　处：《中国农村经济》2021年第10期64-83,共20页Chinese Rural Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“能源空间错配的经济效应与碳排放效应及其纠正机制”(编号:71963009);海南大学科研启动基金项目“供给侧要素错配与区域发展不平衡:理论、机制与实证分析”(编号:kyqd(sk)1904);海南省普通高等学校研究生创新科研课题“环境成本上升对出口倾向的影响”(编号:Hys2020-97)的阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：本文以2011年以来中国部分省份实行户籍制度改革为准自然事件,采用多期双重差分模型考察了农村人口城镇化对居民生活能源消费碳排放的影响。研究结果表明,户籍制度改革显著促进了人均生活碳排放。机制分析表明:户籍制度改革同时促进了城镇居民和农村居民的人均生活碳排放;对于城镇而言,人口城镇化主要通过提高人均消费水平和能源消费强度促进城镇居民的人均生活碳排放,但未显著改善城镇居民能源消费结构;对于农村而言,人口城镇化主要通过提高居民能源消费强度、能源消费结构清洁化程度对农村居民的人均生活碳排放分别带来了显著的促进作用、抑制作用,但未显著影响农村居民的人均消费水平。此外,人口城镇化与居民生活能源消费碳排放之间存在"倒N型"曲线关系,而当前中国绝大多数省份尚未跨过拐点2。因此,各地区应积极落实户籍制度改革,加速推进人口城镇化使得生活能源消费碳排放跨过拐点2,同时加大力度提高居民节能环保意识与绿色消费比重,助力居民生活能源消费碳排放达峰。This article takes the reform of household registration system in 2011 as a quasi natural event and uses the time-varying DID method to examine the impact of urbanization on household carbon emissions from domestic energy consumption.The results show that the reform of household registration system has significantly promoted per capita carbon emissions.The mechanism analysis shows that the reform of household registration system has improved per capita carbon emissions of both urban and rural residents.For urban areas,population urbanization has mainly promoted per capita carbon emissions of urban residents by increasing per capita consumption level and energy consumption intensity,but it has not significantly improved the energy consumption structure of urban residents.For rural areas,population urbanization has promoted per capita carbon emissions of rural residents mainly by increasing the energy consumption intensity and inhibited per capita carbon emissions by optimizing the energy consumption structure of residents,while the policy has not increased per capita consumption level of residents.In addition,population urbanization and household carbon emissions present an inverted N-shape curve relationship.At present,most provinces in China have not crossed the second turning point.Therefore,all regions should actively implement household registration system reform,and accelerate population urbanization,making household carbon emissions cross the second turning point.Besides,the government should actively promote the awareness of energy saving and green consumption,and increase investment in green technology innovation,ensuring thatthe goalof"carbon peak"in residential energy consumptioncan be achieved in the nearfuture.

关 键 词：人口城镇化 城乡居民 生活能源消费碳排放 碳达峰 准自然实验 

分 类 号：F014.5[经济管理—政治经济学]