后疫情时代的全球秩序  

The Global Order in the Post-pandemic Era

作　　者：施展[1,2] Shi Zhan

机构地区：[1]外交学院 [2]外交学院世界政治研究中心

出　　处：《俄罗斯研究》2021年第5期19-36,共18页Russian Studies

摘　　要：如何理解后疫情时代的全球秩序,需要特别关注几组核心要素:力量与人心、地缘与观念、陆地与海洋、政治与经济、大国与小国,以及技术更新。在可预见的未来,全球秩序将处在一种分裂的状态:在经济上,各国极度相互依赖,且这种依赖不会因为贸易、政治对抗而发生实质性逆转;但在政治上,又相互不信任,高度对抗。今天中美之间的经济关系,大体上可以用"美国创新、中国生产、全球销售"来概括。中美之间这种比较优势的不同,在十几年之内不会出现实质性逆转,因此,整体性的脱钩是做不到的。但无论如何,过往的国际秩序无法继续下去。今天的世界很可能需要一种新的全球再分配机制。这样一种再分配机制应该通过一些穿透国界、不以国家为单位的产业来实现。在这些产业的运转中,基于经贸过程找到某种新的分配机制,当下的困境才有解,我们才有可能找到某种新的全球秩序的生长基础。数据问题、气候问题、病毒问题(公共卫生)都是全球性的,无法以单个国家为单位来解决,这三个人类要共同面对的普遍问题,对应着三个产业:互联网经济、新能源经济、生物制药产业。新的全球再分配机制,应当通过这些产业来寻找。此时需要的是突破过去的观念与框架,进行某种升维,找到新秩序的真正出路。In order to better understand the post-pandemic global order,it is imperative to pay special attention to several sets of core elements:power and people,geography and concepts,land and sea,politics and economy,big and small countries,and technological updates.In the foreseeable future,the global order will be in a state of division.Economically countries are extremely interdependent,and this interdependence will not be substantially reversed due to trade and political confrontation.Nevertheless,politically they will become mutually distrustful and highly confrontational.For Sino-U.S.economic relationship today,it could be summarized as"innovated by the U.S.,produced by China and sold to the world".This difference in comparative advantages between these two countries will not be substantially reversed in over a decade.Therefore,a complete decoupling is almost impossible.Nevertheless,in any case the past international order cannot be sustained.Today’s world might call for a new global redistribution mechanism,which should be realized through industries that covers various countries.Only through operation of these industries and based on economic and trade processes could we find a new distribution mechanism and the current dilemma will be solved accordingly.Then we will be able to find basis for the growth of a new global order.Issues,such as data,climate,virus and public health,are all global and cannot be solved by a single country.All these three issues,which humans have to face together,correspond to three industries,namely,the internet economy,the new energy economy and the biopharmaceutical industry.A new global redistribution mechanism should be found through these industries.What is needed at present is to break through past concepts and frameworks,to upgrade our thinking and then to find the true way for a new order.

关 键 词：全球秩序 新冠疫情 全球再分配机制 新兴产业 全球产业链 

分 类 号：D822[政治法律—政治学]