我国建筑碳达峰与碳中和目标分解与路径辨析  

Research on the Target Decomposition and Path of Building Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality in China

作　　者：徐伟 倪江波[2] 孙德宇 黄帅 董建锴 XU Wei;NI Jiangbo;SUN Deyu;HUANG Shuai;DONG Jiankai(China Academy of Building Research,Beijing 100013,China;Ministry of housing and urban rural development,Beijing 100044,China;School of Architecture y Harbin Institute of Technology,Harbin 150090,China;Key Laboratory of Cold Region Urban and Rural Human Settlement Environment Science and Technology(Harbin Institute of Technology),Ministry of Industry and Information Technology,Harbin 150090,China)

机构地区：[1]中国建筑科学研究院有限公司,北京100013 [2]住房和城乡建设部,北京100044 [3]哈尔滨工业大学建筑学院,哈尔滨150090 [4]寒地城乡人居环境科学与技术工业和信息化部重点实验室,哈尔滨150090

出　　处：《建筑科学》2021年第10期1-8,23,共9页Building Science

基　　金：住建部科技计划项目“建筑碳排放总量预测及碳中和技术路线图研究”(2021-R-043)。

摘　　要：降低建筑领域碳排放对我国碳达峰与碳中和战略的实现具有重要意义。本文分析建筑运行阶段碳排放的影响因素,利用CBCEM模型对我国建筑运行碳排放进行中长期预测,研究了我国建筑领域碳达峰和碳中和战略的目标和实现路径。研究结果表明:建筑领域按照现有发展模式,建筑运行碳排放将在2038—2040年达峰,碳排放峰值约为31.5亿t CO_(2),到2060年碳排放量仍将有27.2亿t CO_(2),无法实现建筑领域2030年前碳达峰及2060年碳中和的目标;通过现有技术措施的组合实施,可将建筑领域碳达峰时间提前至2030年左右,峰值强度约为26.5亿t CO_(2);通过测算不同情景下建筑碳排放量,综合考虑技术难度、成本和可推广性,建议技术措施的优先级是:提升新建建筑能效>建筑可再生能源利用>既有建筑节能改造。本研究为我国建筑领域碳达峰和碳中和战略目标的实现提供重要依据和技术参考。Reducing carbon emissions in the building sector is of great significance to the realization of China’s carbon peak and carbon neutrality strategy.Based on the analysis of the influencing factors of carbon emissions in the building sector,this paper uses China building carbon emission model(CBCEM)to predict the medium and longterm carbon emission of building sector in China,and studies the realization path of carbon neutral strategic in the construction field of China.The results show that:according to the existing development mode,the carbon emission of construction field is expected to reach the peak in 2038-2040,with the peak of about 3.15 billion t CO_(2),and the carbon emission will still be 2.72 billion t CO_(2) by 2060,which can not achieve the goal of reaching the peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060;Through the combined implementation of the existing technical measures,the peak of carbon emissions in the construction field can be controlled around 2030,and the peak intensity is about 2.65 billion t CO_(2);Through the calculation of building carbon emissions under different scenarios,considering the technical difficulty,cost and scalability,it is concluded that:improving the energy efficiency of new buildings>building renewable energy utilization>existing building energy saving retrofition.This study provides an important basis and technical reference for the realization of carbon neutrality in construction field of China.

关 键 词：建筑领域 碳达峰 碳中和 预测模型 技术路径 

分 类 号：TU831[建筑科学—供热、供燃气、通风及空调工程]