基于嵌套Logit模型的交通出行选择行为研究  

Research on transportation choice behavior based on Nested Logit model

作　　者：高吉 干宏程[1] 刘晓芸 杨明诚 GAO Ji;GAN Hongcheng;LIU Xiaoyun;YANG Mingcheng(Business School,University of Shanghai for Science and Technology,Shanghai 200093,China)

机构地区：[1]上海理工大学管理学院,上海200093

出　　处：《智能计算机与应用》2021年第7期50-53,59,共5页Intelligent Computer and Applications

基　　金：上海市自然科学基金(15ZR1428100)。

摘　　要：嵌套Logit模型可以用来描述人们的选择行为,以上海市通勤出行为例,就居民通勤方式和出行路径的选择在做该模型的应用研究,通过建立Nested Logit模型的选择树,确定虚拟层选择方案集合为自驾和P&R(Park&Ride)换乘,底层方案选择层集合为路径1、路径2和路径3。运用Stata15.0软件对各个参数进行标定,结果显示P&R使用频率越高的和使用过P&R的人群,更愿意使用P&R的方式出行,开车频率越高,学历越高,收入越高的人群更倾向于选择自驾出行。在自驾出行的线路中,女性驾驶员更偏向选择地面道路行驶,驾龄越高的驾驶员更愿意选择高架道路出行。The Nested Logit model can be used to describe people's choice behavior.Taking the commuting behavior of Shanghai as an example,the application research of this model is done on the choice of residents'commuting mode and travel route.The choice tree of the Nested Logit model is established to determine that the virtual layer selection scheme set is self-driving and P&R,and the bottom layer scheme selection layer set is path 1,path 2 and path 3.Using Stata15.0 software to calibrate each parameter,the results show that the people who use P&R more frequently and have used P&R,they are more willing to use P&R to travel.The higher the driving frequency is,the higher the education level is,and the higher the income are more inclined to choose travelling by car.In self-driving travel routes,female drivers are more inclined to choose ground roads,and drivers with higher driving experience are more willing to choose elevated travel.

关 键 词：非集计模型 嵌套Logit模型 P&R 出行方式选择 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]