基于上游综合调度模型的龙羊峡水库年末水位研究  

Study on the End-of-Year Water Level of Longyangxia Reservoir Based on the Upstream Comprehensive Operation Model

作　　者：方洪斌 周翔南 李克飞 张永永 FANG Hongbin;ZHOU Xiangnan;LI Kefei;ZHANG Yongyong(Yellow River Engineering Consulting Co.,Ltd.,Zhengzhou 450003,Henan,China)

机构地区：[1]黄河勘测规划设计研究院有限公司,河南郑州450003

出　　处：《水力发电》2021年第12期55-59,共5页Water Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51879240)。

摘　　要：为满足防洪防凌、供水、发电以及兼顾宁蒙河段减淤等多目标需求,建立黄河上游综合调度模型并合理性分析;基于模型优化结果,率定龙羊峡水库年末水位影响因子,构建多元线性回归的预测模型,拟定出龙羊峡水库年末水位的合理控制方案。与基于实测年末水位的预测结果对比表明,基于优化年末水位的预测结果较好,与年初水位呈现出极好线性关系。拟定控制方案同时考虑到当年来水量及次年来水量的影响,有助于指导龙羊峡水库的调度运行。In order to meet the multi-objective requirements of the upper reaches of Yellow River on ice flood control,water supply,power generation and river sedimentation reduction in the Ningmeng section,a comprehensive operation model of the upper Yellow River is established and optimized.Based on the model optimization results,the influencing factors of the end-of-year water level of Longyangxia Reservoir are rated,and a multiple linear regression forecasting model is constructed to formulate a reasonable control plan for the end-of-year water level of Longyangxia Reservoir.Comparing the forecast results of proposed model with the forecast results based on of the actual measured end-of-year water level,it shows that the forecast results based on the optimized end-of-year water level are better,and show an excellent linearity with the water level at the beginning of the year.The proposed water level control plan also takes into account the impact of the water volume in the current year and the water volume in the following year,which will help to guide the dispatching and operation of the Longyangxia Reservoir.

关 键 词：年末水位 控制 综合调度 模型优化 龙羊峡水库 黄河上游 

分 类 号：TM734[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]