城乡统筹背景下基于人口迁移视角的重庆市农村土地集约利用研究  

Research on the Intensive Use of Rural Land in Chongqing under the Background of Urban and Rural Coordination:Based on the Perspective of Population Migration

作　　者：张鹏辉 ZHANG Penghui(Northwest Branch of Shaanxi Land Engineering Construction Group Co.,Ltd.,Yulin 719000,China)

机构地区：[1]陕西省土地工程建设集团有限责任公司西北分公司,陕西榆林719000

出　　处：《安徽农学通报》2021年第22期138-143,共6页Anhui Agricultural Science Bulletin

摘　　要：伴随着经济发展的空间布局优化和土地管理制度改革,大量人口迁移,给农村土地集约利用带来了巨大挑战。该研究将基础理论和计量模型相结合,通过引入STIRPAT模型等,根据重庆市各区域人口增长率及人口回流设置不同情景,深入探究人口流动对宅基地、耕地及整体土地资源的影响。结果表明:重庆市未来10年农村人口将继续向中心城区集中,总人口流量可达到629~636万,对土地集约利用有影响的人口流量约399~486万;未来农村宅基地复垦潜力为12.34~12.80万hm^(2),可盘活资金3442~3571亿元,实现土地增值1234~1280亿元;预计到2030年,重庆市存在撂荒威胁的耕地面积将达到7.70~9.37万hm^(2)。本地人口、迁移人口、人口密度对土地资源环境的影响较大,且有逐渐增强的趋势;由于产业结构的优化和工艺升级,对土地资源环境体现负向影响。With the optimization of the spatial layout of economic development and the reform of the land management system,the migration of a large number of people has brought huge challenges to the intensive use of rural land.This paper combines basic theories and econometric models for research,and through the introduction of the STIRPAT model,set up different scenarios according to the population growth rate and population return in each region,in-depth exploration of the impact of population movement on homesteads,arable land and overall land resources.The results show that the rural population in Chongqing will continue to be concentrated in the central city in the next 10 years,and the total population flow can reach 6.29-6.36 million.The population flow that has an impact on the intensive use of land is about 3.99-4.86 million;the future potential of rural homestead reclamation is 12340-12800 hm2,which can revitalize the funds of 34.42-35.71 billion yuan,and realize land appreciation of 12.34-12.80 billion yuan;it is estimated that by 2030,the amount of cultivated land threatened by abandonment in Chongqing will reach 77000-93700 hm2.Local population,migrant population,and population density have a greater impact on land resources and environment,and there is a tendency to gradually increase;due to the optimization of industrial structure and technological upgrading,it has negative impacts on land resources and environment.

关 键 词：人口迁移 土地集约节约利用 STIRPAT模型 土地资源环境 

分 类 号：F292[经济管理—国民经济]