基于数据挖掘的甘肃武都殿沟泉氡异常与地震活动统计关系研究  

Statistical relationship between the radon anomaly of Diangou spring and seismic activity in Wudu,Gansu based on data mining technology

作　　者：刘春国[1] 余丹[1] 陶志刚 樊俊屹[1] LIU Chunguo;YU Dan;TAO Zhigang;FAN Junyi(China Earthquake Networks Center, Beijing 100045, China)

机构地区：[1]中国地震台网中心,北京100045

出　　处：《地震工程学报》2021年第6期1263-1268,共6页China Earthquake Engineering Journal

基　　金：中国地震局地震科技星火计划攻关项目(XH20002);中国地震局专项“全国地球物理台网数据跟踪分析与产出”。

摘　　要：殿沟泉气氡浓度在汶川地震后经常出现成簇高频震荡异常。应用数据挖掘方法,采用正规化、聚类、特征值计算等方法对氡观测数据和地震目录进行预处理,提取气氡异常、震级、震源深度和地震分区等参数,在此基础上采用贝叶斯网络模型开展殿沟泉氡异常与周边区域地震活动统计关系研究。利用聚类开展的地震分区结果显示与构造分区基本吻合,反映出不同构造单元地震活动的丛集性特征;贝叶斯网络模型结果表明泉点气氡异常与周边地震活动有关,特别是与汶川地震主震区龙门山断裂中段和临近区青川断裂区域的地震活动有关。研究结果有助于了解泉点气氡对周边地震响应的差异性特征,对未来该泉点气氡异常的判断与地震预测有参考意义。为地震前兆异常分析和地震活动分区提供了一种新的技术思路和方法。High-frequency oscillatory anomalies of radon concentration in Diangou spring in Wudu City,Gansu Province often clustered after the Wenchuan earthquake.The radon observation data and seismic catalogue were preprocessed by using the data mining method,then the parameters such as radon anomaly,magnitude,focal depth,and seismic zonation were extracted.On this basis,Bayesian network model was adopted to study the statistical relationship between radon anomaly in Diangou spring and seismic activity in the surrounding area.The results of seismic zonation obtained from the clustering method were basically consistent with those of tectonic division,reflecting the clustering characteristics of seismic activities in different structural units.The results of Bayesian network model showed that the gas radon anomalies were related to the surrounding seismicity,especially the seismic activities in the middle segment of Longmenshan fault and the Qingchuan fault.The research results are helpful to understand the differential characteristics of gas radon response in Diangou spring to surrounding earthquakes,thus having reference significance for the judgment of gas radon anomaly and earthquake prediction in the future.It also provides a new technical idea and method for earthquake precursor anomaly analysis and seismic activity zonation.

关 键 词：氡浓度异常 地震活动 数据挖掘 聚类分区 

分 类 号：P315.723[天文地球—地震学]