《财富》世界500强新上榜企业在榜时长研究  

Analysis on the Survival Time of New Global Top 500 Enterprises in《Fortune》

作　　者：陈晓平[1] 陈易旺 周勇[2] CHEN Xiao-ping;CHEN Yi-wang;ZHOU Yong(College of Mathematics and Informatics&FJKLMAA,Fujian Normal University,Fuzhou 350108,China;Institute of Statistics and Interdisciplinary Sciences,Faculty of Economics and Management,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200241,China)

机构地区：[1]福建师范大学数学与统计学院,福建福州350117 [2]华东师范大学经管学部统计交叉科学研究院,上海200241

出　　处：《数理统计与管理》2021年第6期965-973,共9页Journal of Applied Statistics and Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(71331006);国家自然科学重大研究计划重点项目(91546202);福建省自然科学基金(2021J01658);中央引导地方科技发展专项(2021L3018)。

摘　　要：基于生存分析的Kaplan-Meier估计和Cox比例风险模型方法,以1997-2019年《财富》世界500强企业排行榜数据为研究样本,本文发现新上榜企业在榜时长属于删失数据,研究了在榜时长的特征及其影响因素.本文分析的结果表明新上榜企业雇员人数、营业收入以及所属的行业信息对在榜时长有显著地影响,其中新上榜企业的雇员人数、营业收入与在榜时长正相关.新上榜企业中所属行业信息中为互联网信息技术的在榜概率明显高于制造、商业贸易、银行、能源矿产和其他行业.从总体上看,日本、英国、美国、其他国家的新上榜企业在榜时长显著短于中国,历史排名前150名的新上榜企业在榜时长显著长于历史排名后200名.Based on Kaplan-Meier estimator and Cox proportional hazards model method of survival analysis,putting the 1997-2019《Fortune》ranking data of Fortune Global 500 as research sample,this paper finds that the time in the ranking list of new Fortune Global 500 enterprises is censored data,and studies the characteristics and influencing factors,from which indicates the time in the ranking list is affected observably by new enterprises5 operating income,the number of employees as well as its industry information.Thereinto,the time in the ranking list is positively correlated with the number of employees and operating income.The probability of Internet information technology in the industry information of newly listed enterprises is significantly higher than that of manufacturing,commercial trade,banking,energy and mineral resources and other industries.On the whole,the time in the ranking list of new enterprises from Japan,America,Britain and other nations is dramatically shorter than China.The time in the ranking list for new enterprises of top 150 is significantly longer than whose ranking list after 200.

关 键 词：世界500强 在榜时长 删失数据 Kaplan-Meier估计 COX比例风险模型 

分 类 号：O212[理学—概率论与数理统计]