北极航道的贸易替代效应与贸易互补效应分析  

Analysis on Trade Substitution Effect and Trade Complementary Effect of Arctic Passage

作　　者：刘权 胡麦秀[1] LIU Quan;HU Maixiu(School of Economics and Management,Shanghai Ocean University,Shanghai 201306,China)

机构地区：[1]上海海洋大学经济管理学院,上海201306

出　　处：《海洋开发与管理》2021年第11期3-10,共8页Ocean Development and Management

基　　金：国家社科基金项目“‘北极航道’与世界贸易格局和地缘政治格局的演变研究”(17BGJ059);教育部哲学社科基金重大项目“北极航道开发利用有关问题研究”(20JHQ016).

摘　　要：随着北极冰雪加速消融,北极航道在国际贸易运输中的关注度日益提升。文章采用理论模型进行分析,认为北极航道通过贸易替代效应与贸易互补效应对世界贸易格局产生影响。研究发现北极航道开通将:提升航道沿线各国间的贸易潜力,改变沿线国与非沿线国间部分贸易活动的流向;催生北极航道沿线国之间部分贸易活动的产生,改变北极航道沿线国之间部分贸易活动的流量。With the melting of Arctic ice and snow,the attention of Arctic channel in international trade and transportation is increasing.The paper analyzed the Arctic channel by using the theoretical model,and thought that the Arctic channel has an impact on the world trade pattern through the trade substitution effect and trade complementary effect from two routes:shortening the shipping distance,driving the infrastructure construction along the line and opening up new channel.The results showed that:(1)the opening of Arctic channel will enhance the trade potential of countries along the channel and change the direction of some trade activities between countries along the route and countries not along the route.(2)It will give birth to the production of some trade activities among the countries along the Arctic channel and change the flow of some trade activities between the countries along the Arctic channel.

关 键 词：北极航道 贸易替代效应 贸易互补效应 引力模型 国际贸易 

分 类 号：P74[天文地球—海洋科学] F114[经济管理—国际贸易]