基于DEMATEL-ANP模型的中国旅游产业结构优化评价研究  

Research on Evaluation of Tourism Industry Structure Optimization in China Based on DEMATEL-ANP Model

作　　者：刘佳[1,2] 侯佳佳 亓颖 LIU Jia;HOU Jia-jia;QI Ying(Management College,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100;Institute of Marine Development,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100;Taxation Bureau of Yantai Fushan District,Yantai 265500,China)

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学管理学院,山东青岛266100 [2]中国海洋大学海洋发展研究院,山东青岛266100 [3]烟台市福山区税务局,山东烟台265500

出　　处：《地理与地理信息科学》2021年第6期102-112,共11页Geography and Geo-Information Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“‘双循环’新格局下我国海洋旅游业高质量发展与响应机制研究”(21BGL021);“城镇化进程下中国沿海城市旅游化演变新旧动能转换研究”(19BGL138);中国旅游研究院文化和旅游宏观决策课题“双循环背景下旅游产业链重构机制与路径研究”(2021HGJCG04);山东省自然科学基金项目“山东省旅游产业绿色创新效率空间网络结构与形成机制”(ZR202102200015)。

摘　　要：在系统阐释旅游产业结构优化内涵的基础上,基于合理化、高级化、高效化和生态化视角构建四维旅游产业结构优化评价体系,运用系统集成的DEMATEL-ANP评价模型,以2000-2018年中国大陆30个省域为研究对象,识别旅游产业结构优化评价体系中不同指标之间的复杂网络关系,在此基础上评价和分析中国旅游产业结构优化水平及其动态演化规律,进一步运用泰尔指数判别中国旅游产业结构优化水平的区域差异及其成因。结果表明:1)合理化与高级化在中国旅游产业结构优化过程中具有基础作用,高效化是推动中国旅游产业结构优化的关键指标,生态化是新时期中国旅游产业结构优化的新要求和新方向;2)中国旅游产业结构优化水平呈现初始起步、稳步增长、波动提升、迅猛发展的阶段演化特征,旅游产业结构合理化、高级化、高效化和生态化4个维度之间的耦合协调状态由濒临失调向良好协调演变;3)中国旅游产业结构优化水平的区域差异逐渐缩小,且区域差异主要源于东部地区区域内的差异。Based on the connotation of tourism industry structure optimization,this paper constructs a four-dimensional integrated evaluation system of tourism industry structure optimization from the perspectives of rationalization,advancement,high-efficiency and ecology.By using the integrated DEMATEL-ANP model,taking 30 provinces(municipalities or autonomous regions)in Chinese mainland from 2000 to 2018 as the research objects to identify the complex network relationship among different indexes in the evaluation system of tourism industry structure optimization,and to evaluate and analyze the overall level and dynamic evolution of tourism industry structure optimization in China.Theil index is further used to distinguish the characteristics and causes of regional differences in tourism industry structure optimization level in China.The results show that:1)The rationalization and advancement play a basic role in tourism industry structure optimization,high-efficiency is the key index to promote tourism industry structure optimization,ecology is the new requirement and new direction of tourism industry structure optimization in the new period.2)Tourism industry structure optimization level in China presents the stage evolution characteristics of initial start,steady growth,fluctuating promotion and rapid development,and the coupling coordination state among tourism industry structure rationalization,advancement,high-efficiency and ecology has changed from verge of disorder to well-coordinated.3)The regional differences of tourism industry structure optimization level are gradually shrinking,and they mainly come from the differences in the eastern region.

关 键 词：旅游产业结构优化 决策试行与评价实验室(DEMATEL) 网络层次分析法(ANP) 区域差异 

分 类 号：F592[经济管理—旅游管理]