1635—1643年中国群聚性灾害的时空演进与气候背景  

Spatiotemporal process and climatic background of clustering disasters in China during 1635-1643

作　　者：高兴 李钢 王星星 王烁 汪宇欣 张翠玲 GAO Xing;LI Gang;WANG Xingxing;WANG Shuo;WANG Yuxin;ZHANG Cuiling(College of Urban and Environmental Sciences/Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Earth Surface System and Environmental Carrying Capacity,Northwest University,Xi'an 710127,China;State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology,Xi'an 710061,China)

机构地区：[1]西北大学城市与环境学院/陕西省地表系统与环境承载力重点实验室,陕西西安710127 [2]黄土与第四纪地质国家重点实验室,陕西西安710061

出　　处：《中山大学学报（自然科学版）（中英文）》2021年第6期71-79,共9页Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41201190);黄土与第四纪地质国家重点实验室开放基金(SKLLQG1911)。

摘　　要：近年来灾害地理视角下的历史灾害研究重点考察特定地域与时间序列,重大灾害个案复原亟需关注。明末崇祯八至十六年(1635—1643年)发生的旱、蝗、饥、疫群聚性灾害无论从持续时长、受灾范围还是灾情等级来看都较为罕见。通过整理历史文献构建群聚性灾害数据集,以旱、蝗为主线复原群聚性灾害的时空演进与相互关联,探讨群发性灾害的气候背景。结果表明:(1)各灾种演变均呈单峰"快增慢减"态势,但峰值年份不同。旱灾、蝗灾、饥荒在1638—1641年灾情较重,疫灾经历较长的孕灾期,在1641年达到顶峰;(2)旱灾广泛分布于东部季风区,黄淮海流域与长江下游沿线是核心灾区;蝗灾暴发相对集中,聚集在黄河下游沿线及河网湖泊周边,体现显著"水缘性"特征;(3)相对于旱灾,蝗灾暴发存在显著空间相关性和时间承继性,饥荒呈现一定滞后性。旱情显著提升蝗灾的暴发强度,重度旱灾下蝗灾等级显著增加;(4)在明清小冰期,连续的极端冷干气候加剧蝗灾暴发,或与大尺度环流等外部变化相关,且灾害链发模式加剧了灾情。In recent years,the study of historical disasters from the perspective of disaster geography focuses on spatiotemporal evolution and series analysis,and the recovery of historical clustering disasters needs attention.The clustering disasters such as drought,locust plagues,famine and epidemic disaster occurred during the 8th to 16th Chongzhen years(1635-1643)in the late Ming Dynasty were relatively rare in terms of duration,scope,and level.By sorting out the historical documents and constructing the data set,this paper takes drought and locust plagues as the line to recover the spatiotemporal evolution and correlation between clustering disasters,and clarify the climatic background of this period.The results show that:(1)The development of disasters presented a single peak type of“fast increasing followed by slow decreasing”trend,but the peak years were different.Drought,locust plagues and famine were severely affected during 1638-1641.The epidemic had a lag period and reached its peak in 1641.(2)The drought was widely distributed in the eastern monsoon region of China,and the Huang-Huai-Hai Basin and the lower reaches of the Yangtze River were the core affected areas.The outbreak of locust plagues was relatively concentrated along the lower reaches of the Yellow River and around the lakes,which reflected the obvious“water approaching characteristic”.(3)Compared with drought,locust plagues showed significant spatial correlation and temporal succession,and famine and epidemic disaster presented a lag.Drought significantly promoted the outbreak intensity of locust plagues.(4)During the Little Ice Age,continuous extreme cold and dry climate aggravated the outbreak of locust plagues,which may be related to large-scale circulation or other external environment changes,and the pattern of the disaster chain multiplied the intensity of the situation.

关 键 词：群聚性灾害 蝗灾 时空演进 气候背景 明朝末期(1635—1643年) 

分 类 号：K901.9[历史地理—人文地理学]