沿黄地区中心城市及城市群高质量发展的测度及影响因素  

Measurement and influencing factors of high⁃quality development of the central cities and urban agglomerations along the Yellow River

作　　者：王家明[1] 余志林 WANG Jiaming;YU Zhilin(School of Chinese Law and Economics Management,Shengli College,China University of Petroleum,Dongying Shandong 257061,China;Shandong Provincial Party School,Jinan Shandong 250103,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学胜利学院文法与经济管理学院,山东东营257061 [2]中共山东省委党校,山东济南250103

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2021年第10期47-58,共12页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目“环境规制驱动资源型城市经济高质量发展的动力机制与政策路径研究”(批准号:20YJC790132);全国统计科学研究项目“资源型城市要素市场化配置效率对经济高质量发展的多重异质性影响机制研究”(批准号:2020LY069);山东省自然科学基金“环境规制驱动山东省资源型城市高质量发展的动力机制及区块链实现研究”(批准号:ZR2020QG042)。

摘　　要：黄河流域是我国重要的生态屏障和经济地带,是启动内循环、促进乡村振兴高质量发展的重要区域,研究中心城市及城市群高质量发展对促进黄河流域经济社会全面发展具有重要的指导作用。文章运用模糊综合评价法对沿黄地区中心城市进行界定,运用综合指数模型确定沿黄城市群,构建DEA⁃Malmquist指数模型对2003—2018年沿黄地区中心城市及城市群高质量发展水平进行测度,在此基础上运用系统GMM模型对影响其高质量发展的因素进行分析,旨在明晰沿黄地区中心城市及城市群高质量发展水平及影响因素,为其高质量发展政策制定提供参考,共同推动黄河流域高质量发展。研究表明:①样本期内,兰州市、西安市、济南市在沿黄地区中心城市空间维度上高质量发展水平位居前列,关中平原城市群、兰西白城市群高质量发展水平位居前列。②沿黄地区中心城市高质量发展水平在2012—2013年前后有明显的提升,不同约束下沿黄地区中心城市及城市群的高质量发展水平在梯度分布上呈“正态分布”。③财政因素、技术因素、人均实际生产总值、人均可支配收入对沿黄地区中心城市及城市群高质量发展水平有正向推动作用,环境规制倒逼技术创新效应显现,但环境规制对高质量发展的影响呈现异质性特征。这意味着,在沿黄地区中心城市及城市群高质量发展现状基础上,需根据不同因素的异质性影响具有针对性的提出对策建议。最后,文章从政府引导、突出优势,点面结合、协同规划,综合治理、分类施策,系统提升、构建现代化经济体系四方面提出促进沿黄地区中心城市及城市群高质量发展的政策建议。The Yellow River Basin is an important ecological barrier and economic zone in China.It is an important area for initiating the internal circulation and promoting high-quality development of rural revitalization.The research on the high-quality development measurement of central cities and urban agglomerations along the river can provide important guidance for the promotion of its overall economic and social development.This article used the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to define the central cities along the Yellow River and the comprehensive index model to determine the urban agglomerations along the river,and constructed the DEA-Malmquist index model to measure the high-quality development level of the central cities and urban agglomerations along the Yellow River from 2003 to 2018.The study also used the system GMM model to analyze the factors affecting its high-quality development,aim⁃ing to clarify the high-quality development level and influencing factors of central cities and urban agglomerations along the Yellow Riv⁃er,provide reference for their high-quality development policy formulation,and jointly promote the high-quality development of the Yel⁃low River Basin.This results showed that:①In the sample period,Lanzhou,Xi􀆳an,and Jinan ranked in the forefront of high-quality de⁃velopment in the spatial dimension of central cities along the Yellow River.Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration and Lanzhou-Xining-Baiyin urban agglomeration ranked in the forefront of high-quality development.②The high-quality development level of central cities along the Yellow River significantly improved in around 2012-2013.The high-quality development level of central cities and urban ag⁃glomerations along the Yellow River region was􀆳normally distributed'in the gradient distribution.③Financial factors,technical fac⁃tors,per capita real GDP,and per capita disposable income had a positive effect on the high-quality development of the central cities and urban agglomerations along the Yellow River.En

关 键 词：沿黄地区中心城市 沿黄城市群 高质量发展 DEA⁃Malmquist指数模型 系统GMM模型 

分 类 号：F292[经济管理—国民经济]