基于CGE模型的粤港澳大湾区电力低碳转型路径评估  

Assessment of low⁃carbon transition path of power in GBA based on the CGE Model

作　　者：汪鹏[1,2,3] 许鸿伟 任松彦 成贝贝[1,2,3] 赵黛青 WANG Peng;XU Hongwei;REN Songyan;Cheng Beibei;ZHAO Daiqing(Guangzhou Institute of Energy Conversion,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Guangzhou Guangdong 510640,China;Key Laboratory of Renewable Energy,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Guangzhou Guangdong 510640,China;Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of New and Renewable Energy Research and Development,Guangzhou Guangdong 510640,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院广州能源研究所,广东广州510640 [2]中国科学院可再生能源重点实验室,广东广州510640 [3]广东省新能源和可再生能源研究开发与应用重点实验室,广东广州510640 [4]中国科学院大学,北京100049

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2021年第10期90-104,共15页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“基于经济-技术-空间集成能源模型研究”(批准号:71603248);广东省科技计划项目“工业园区智慧能源管理系统关键技术研究”(批准号:2017A050501060)。

摘　　要：电力部门能源消费和碳排放约占全社会总量的30%~40%,电力部门低碳转型受气候环境政策驱动,也面临供应安全保障、成本效益、环境容量制约而呈现不同的发展路径。粤港澳大湾区一次能源对外依存度83%,电力供应对外依存度48%。作为对标未来国际三大湾区的国家战略,理应在电力低碳转型方面先行先试。该研究基于珠三角九市和香港澳门能源平衡表及投入产出表构建粤港澳大湾区动态CGE模型,通过研判外部一次能源供应形势及考虑不同电力消耗能源的局限情况,按照不同组合的电源结构,设计基准情景、天然气电力情景、非化石电力情景及零煤电情景。在设定粤港澳大湾区本地供电总量相同的条件下,预测到2035年湾区发电技术结构不同的转型路径下电力部门能源效率、投资回报、外购电力需求的变化及对其他产业部门的影响。在微观和宏观经济系统两个层面分析了粤港澳大湾区电力实施低碳转型对一次能源结构、碳排放和宏观GDP的影响。结果显示三种面向2035年的电力低碳转型路径下,天然气电力情景转型效益最好,投资回报率为77%。非化石电力情景的度电能耗下降效果最好。零煤电情景电力部门的碳减排贡献最大,能源强度下降40%。三种电力低碳转型情景比基准情景有效降低碳排放,且电力转型可带动电力部门、工业部门和服务业增加值及宏观GDP的增长,实现低碳转型的同时促进经济绿色发展。在平衡能源、经济、环境三个维度指标的情况下,提出动态电力系统转型筛选机制,分阶段、分步骤多情景组合路径实施电力低碳转型,为粤港澳大湾区电力低碳转型的政策制定提供量化决策参考。Power sector energy consumption and carbon emissions account for about 30%~40%of the total in the whole society.The low⁃carbon transition of the power sector is driven by climate and environmental policies,and faces different development paths due to the constraints of security of supply,cost⁃effectiveness and environmental capacity.The external dependence of the Guangdong⁃Hong Kong⁃Macao Greater Bay Area(GBA)on primary energy is 83%,and its external dependence on power supply is 48%.As a national strategy to benchmark the future of the three major international bay areas,this area should take the lead in exploring the path of low⁃carbon electricity transformation.Based on the energy balance sheets and input⁃output tables of nine cities in the Pearl River Delta,Hong Kong and Macao,this study constructed the dynamic CGE model.By studying the external primary energy supply situation and considering the different power consumption of energy constraints,the benchmark scenario,natural gas power scenario,non⁃fossil power scenario and zero⁃coal power scenario were designed according to different combined power supply structures.Under the condition of the same local power supply in the GBA,the energy efficiency,investment return,outsourcing power demand change of the power sector and its impact on other industrial sectors were predicted under different transformation paths of power generation technology structures in the GBA until 2035.The impact of low⁃carbon power transformation in the GBA on the primary energy structure,carbon emissions and macro GDP were analyzed at the micro⁃and macro⁃economic system levels.The results showed that under the three low⁃carbon power transformation paths for 2035,the natural gas power scenario transformation had the best efficiency,with a return on investment of 77%.The non⁃fossil power scenario showed the best reduction in energy consumption per kilowatt hour of electricity produced.In the zero⁃coal scenario,the power sector contributed the most to carbon em

关 键 词：粤港澳大湾区 混合动态CGE 电力低碳转型 动态电力系统转型筛选机制 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]