The Anomalous Mei-yu Rainfall of Summer 2020 from a Circulation Clustering Perspective:Current and Possible Future Prevalence  

作　　者：Robin T.CLARK Peili WU Lixia ZHANG Chaofan LI 

机构地区：[1]Met Office Hadley Centre,FitzRoy Road,Exeter EX13PB,UK [2]LASG,Institute of Atmospheric Physics(IAP),Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China [3]Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters,Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044,China [4]Center for Monsoon System Research,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China

出　　处：《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》2021年第12期2010-2022,I0002-I0008,共20页大气科学进展（英文版）

基　　金：Lixia ZHANG was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.42075037;the Innovative Team Project of Lanzhou Institute of Arid Meteorology(GHSCXTD-2020-2);Chaofan LI was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2018YFC1506005).

摘　　要：Highly unusual amounts of rainfall were seen in the 2020 summer in many parts of China,Japan,and South Korea.At the intercontinental scale,case studies have attributed this exceptional event to a displacement of the climatological western North Pacific subtropical anticyclone,potentially associated Indian Ocean sea surface temperature patterns and a mid-latitude wave train emanating from the North Atlantic.Using clusters of spatial patterns of sea level pressure,we show that an unprecedented 80%of the 2020 summer days in East Asia were dominated by clusters of surface pressure greater than normal over the South China Sea.By examining the rainfall and water vapor fluxes in other years when these clusters were also prevalent,we find that the frequency of these types of clusters was likely to have been largely responsible for the unusual rainfall of 2020.From two ensembles of future climate projections,we show that summers like 2020 in East Asia may become more frequent and considerably wetter in a warmer world with an enhanced moisture supply.

关 键 词：circulation clustering mei-yu front 2020 summer rainfall climate projections 

分 类 号：P426.62[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]