浙江省二级加宽公路安全统计建模研究  

Study of the safety of second grade highways in Zhejiang Province

作　　者：陈宏飞 王雪松[2] CHEN Hongfei;WANG Xuesong(Traffic Administration Bureau of Zhejiang Provincial Public Security Department,Hangzhou310016,China;School of transportation engineering,Tongji University,Shanghai201804,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江省公安厅交通管理局,中国杭州310016 [2]同济大学交通运输工程学院,中国上海201804

出　　处：《汽车与安全》2021年第10期80-85,共6页Auto & Safety

摘　　要：为提升浙江省二级加宽公路安全管理水平,选取全省115个二级加宽公路典型路段,对这些路段的14个自变量和3个因变量进行了统计建模分析。建立了负二项回归事故统计模型,探讨自变量和因变量之间的相关性和相关程度。基于安全可提高空间法,建立了二级加宽公路的事故多发路段判别模型。本研究是省级事故统计建模的有益尝试,对进一步开展定量化、专业化的安全管理具有积极意义。In order to improve the safety management level of secondary widened highways in Zhejiang Province,115 typical sections of secondary widened roads in the province were selected and data analysis was conducted on 14 independent variables and 3 dependent variables.A statistical model of negative binomial regression accident was established to explore the correlation and degree of correlation between the independent and dependent variables.Based on the method of potential for safety improvement,an identification model of accident-prone sections for secondary widened roads was established.

关 键 词：二级加宽公路 事故统计模型 事故多发路段判别 安全可提高空间法 

分 类 号：U492.8[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]