运用风险指数法对新冠肺炎疫情开展快速风险评估—以新发地市场疫情为例  

Rapid risk assessment of COVID-19 by risk index:based on data of the COVID-19 outbreak in Beijing Xinfadi wholesale market

作　　者：郑阳[1] 陈艳伟[1] 李爽[1] 贾蕾[1] 黎新宇[1] 王全意[1] 杨鹏[2] Zheng Yang;Chen Yanwei;Li Shuang;Jia Lei;Li Xinyu;Wang Quanyi;Yang Peng(Institute for Infectious Disease and Endemic Disease Control,Beijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control,Beijing Research Center for Preventive Medicine,Beijing 100013,China;Office of Center for Global Health,Beijing Preventive Medicine Center,Beijing 100013,China)

机构地区：[1]北京市疾病预防控制中心,北京市预防医学研究中心传染病地方病控制所,100013 [2]北京市疾病预防控制中心,北京市预防医学研究中心全球健康中心办公室,100013

出　　处：《国际病毒学杂志》2021年第5期407-411,共5页International Journal of Virology

基　　金：北京市科技计划课题(Z201100005420010)。

摘　　要：目的分析新发地新冠肺炎暴发疫情的公开数据,建立快速风险评估方法,为疫情防控并采取有效应对措施提供科学依据。方法收集2020年6月11日至7月15日北京市卫生健康委员会官方公布的新冠肺炎疫情数据,采用风险指数的方法,从每日新增病例人数、现存病例人数、3 d平均发病率、5 d新增病例均值四个方面综合评估新发地市场新冠肺炎疫情暴发期间的风险等级。结果新发地新冠肺炎疫情病例涉及11个行政区,风险指数结果显示,6月13日至6月29日北京市处于新冠肺炎疫情高风险阶段(RI≥16)。在此期间,仅丰台区、大兴区分别有88.89%(16 d/18 d)、38.89%(7 d/18 d)的时间处于高风险阶段。海淀区、东城区有5.56%(1 d/18 d)的时间处于较高风险阶段。剩余行政区均无高风险或较高风险阶段。结论利用风险指数对疫情发展态势开展快速风险评估,能够使广大公共卫生专业人员特别是基层技术人员迅速判断疫情风险级别,并可与同等规模城市或地区进行横向对比,快速风险评估工作的开展有助于分区分级精准施策。Objective To analyze the public data of the coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)outbreak in Beijing Xinfadi wholesale market,and establish a rapid risk assessment method,so as to provide references for the prevention and control policies of COVID-19 outbreaks.Methods The official data of COVID-19 epidemics released by Beijing Health Commission from June 11 to July 15,2020 were collected.The risk level of COVID-19 during the outbreak in Beijing Xinfadi wholesale market was assessed using the outbreak risk index(RI)calculated by daily number of new cases,current number of cases,average incidence rate of 3 days and average number of new cases of 5 days.Results The outbreak in Beijing Xinfadi wholesale market affected 11 districts.Risk index showed that Beijing was at high risk stage(RI≥16)from June 13 to June 29.The time of high risk stage in Fengtai and Daxing district accounted for 88.89%(16 d/18 d)and 38.89%(7 d/18 d),respectively.The time of secondary high risk stage in both Haidian and Dongcheng accounted for 5.56%(1 d/18 d).No high risk or secondary high risk time in other districts.Conclusions The RI can be used in rapid risk assessment for the trend of epidemics and would help public health professionals,especially the technicians in grassroots institutions,to judge quickly the risk level of the epidemic.It can also be used to compare the risks between different cities.The implementation of rapid risk assessment can make the epidemic prevention and control accurate in different areas and at different levels.

关 键 词：新型冠状病毒肺炎 风险指数 风险评估 

分 类 号：R181.8[医药卫生—流行病学]