基于陆气耦合的城市内涝高分辨率模拟预报方法  

High-resolution Simulation and Forecasting of Urban Waterlogging Based on Land-atmosphere Coupling

作　　者：周聂 侯精明 苏锋 毕旭 陈光照 张大伟[4] 李丙尧 ZHOU Nie;HOU Jing-ming;SU Feng;BI Xu;CHEN Guang-zhao;ZHANG Da-wei;LI Bing-yao(State Key Laboratory of Ecohydraulics in Northwest Arid Region of China,Xi’an University of Technology,Xi’an 710048,China;PowerChina Northwest Engineering Corporation Limited,Xi’an 710065,China;Xi’an Meteorological Station,Xi’an 710016,China;Research Center on Flood&Drought Disaster Reduction,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China)

机构地区：[1]西安理工大学省部共建西北旱区生态水利国家重点实验室,陕西西安710048 [2]中国电建集团西北勘测设计研究院有限公司,陕西西安710065 [3]西安市气象台,陕西西安710016 [4]中国水利水电科学研究院防洪抗旱减灾研究中心,北京100038

出　　处：《中国给水排水》2021年第21期131-138,共8页China Water & Wastewater

基　　金：国家十三五重大研发专项(2016YFC0402704);国家自然科学基金资助项目(51609199);陕西省水利科技项目(2017SLKJ-14);固原海绵城市建设及运营关键技术研究项目(SCHM-2018-0104)。

摘　　要：高分辨率城市内涝预报能更准确反映城市内涝情况,有助于及时发布预警预报信息,降低城市内涝带来的损失。基于预报降雨校正模块和高精度水文水动力模型,耦合GRAPES_MESO数值天气预报模式,构建了基于陆气耦合的城市内涝模拟预报模型。并以陕西省西咸新区部分区域为研究对象,通过三场实测暴雨检验模型的预报性能。结果表明,所建模型能高效准确预测城市内涝积水要素,计算15 h降雨-致涝过程平均用时为0.82 h,预报内涝积水面积平均误差低于10%,积水量平均误差小于20%,可见模型预报性能良好,能高效开展城市内涝预报工作,其模拟预报结果对指导城市防灾减灾工作具有一定意义。The high-resolution urban waterlogging forecasting can reflect the urban waterlogging more accurately,help to release the early warning and forecast information in time,and reduce the loss caused by the urban waterlogging.Based on the rainfall forecast correction module and the high-precision hydrodynamics model and coupling with the GRAPES_MESO numerical weather forecast model,an urban waterlogging simulation forecast model based on land-atmosphere coupling was constructed.The prediction performance of the model in Xixian New Area of Shaanxi Province was tested through three measured rainstorm events.The model could predict the urban waterlogging factors efficiently and accurately.The average time for calculating a 15 h rainfall-waterlogging process was 0.82 h,and the average error of predicting the waterlogging area was less than 10%and the average error of the water volume was less than 20%,indicating that the prediction performance of the model was good.The model can efficiently forecast the urban waterlogging,and the simulation results have certain significance to guide the urban disaster prevention and mitigation.

关 键 词：城市内涝预报 GRAPES_MESO模型 水文水动力模型 数值模拟 降雨校正 高分辨率 

分 类 号：TU992[建筑科学—市政工程]