清代东北三省旱涝灾害时空特征分析  

Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Droughts and Floods in the Three Provinces of Northeast China in Qing Dynasty

作　　者：郭家宝 毕硕本[1,2] 邱湘开 张莉 GUO Jiabao;BI Shuoben;QIU Xiangkai;ZHANG Li(Institute of Science and Technology History,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing Jiangsu 210044,China;School of Geographical Sciences,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing Jiangsu 210044,China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学科学技术史研究院,江苏南京210044 [2]南京信息工程大学地理科学学院,江苏南京210044

出　　处：《广西师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2021年第6期183-196,共14页Journal of Guangxi Normal University:Natural Science Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41271410,41971340)。

摘　　要：利用清代1650—1911年的历史文献资料对东北三省旱涝灾害评定等级,运用滑动平均、累积距平法分析了旱涝时间序列的突变性特征;利用集合经验模态分解方法(ensemble empirical mode decomposition,EEMD)研究了清代东北三省不同时间段旱涝灾害的周期特征。通过分析旱涝灾害发生的频次与频率,利用反距离权重(IDW)方法及计算东北三省的年均旱涝灾害府次比来反映清代东北三省旱涝灾害的空间分布特征。结果表明:清代东北三省旱涝次数较少,交替发生,并且洪涝灾害的次数比干旱灾害的次数多,清代东北三省大致可以分为2个偏旱期和2个偏涝期,旱涝灾害变化为准3 a、准7 a的年际周期,准22 a、准29 a的年代际周期,准87 a的世纪际周期。清代东北三省旱涝灾害空间分布不均匀,旱涝频次由北到南依次递增且主要集中在辽宁省。本文的研究结果,可以揭示清代东北三省旱涝灾害的变化规律,为当代东北三省防灾减灾提供参考。Based on the historical literature from 1650 to 1911 in Qing Dynasty,this paper evaluates the drought and waterlogging disasters in the three provinces of Northeast China,and analyzes the mutagenicity characteristics of drought and waterlogging time series by means of sliding average and cumulative anomaly method.Ensemble empirical mode decomposition(EEMD)was used to study the periodic characteristics of drought and flood disasters in the three provinces of Northeast China in the Qing Dynasty.By analyzing the rate and frequency of drought and flood disasters,using the inverse distance weight(IDW)method and calculating the average annual drought and flood disaster ratio of the three provinces of Northeast China,the spatial distribution of drought and flood disasters in the three provinces of Northeast China in the Qing Dynasty were studied.The results showed that the number of droughts and floods in the three northeastern provinces in the Qing Dynasty was less and alternating,and the number of floods was more than that of droughts.The periodic characteristics of drought and flood disasters of the three provinces of Northeast China in the Qing Dynasty can be roughly divided into two drought periods and two flood periods.The changes in drought and flood disasters were quasi 3 a,quasi 7 a interannual cycle,quasi 22 a,quasi 29 a interdecadal cycle,and quasi 87 a in the cycle.In the Qing Dynasty,the spatial distribution of drought and flood disasters in the three provinces of Northeast China was uneven.The frequency of drought and flood disasters increased from north to south and was mainly concentrated in Liaoning Province.

关 键 词：旱涝灾害 时空特征 东北三省 清代 集合经验模态分解(EEMD) 

分 类 号：P92[天文地球—自然地理学] P429