重点产业政策如何影响了企业出口——来自中国制造业的微观证据  

How Does Key-Industry Policy Affect Firms’Export Behavior?Evidence from Chinese Manufacturing Firms

作　　者：毛其淋[1,2] 赵柯雨 MAO Qilin;ZHAO Keyu(Nankai University,300071;Peking University,100000)

机构地区：[1]南开大学跨国公司研究中心 [2]南开大学经济学院,300071 [3]北京大学国家发展研究院,100000

出　　处：《财贸经济》2021年第11期131-145,共15页Finance & Trade Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“贸易开放与我国制造业产能利用率:因果效应、机制及对策研究”(72073074);国家自然科学基金项目“中国外资进入自由化、创新驱动与制造业企业转型升级研究”(71773055);南开大学文科发展基金项目“外资政策动态调整与中国制造业产能过剩问题研究”(ZB21BZ0203)。

摘　　要：本文以中国"五年规(计)划"政策文件对重点产业的设定为切入点,利用2001—2013年中国工业企业数据系统考察了重点产业政策对中国制造业企业出口行为的影响效应与作用机制。研究结果表明,重点产业政策对中国制造业企业的出口概率和出口规模均具有显著的促进效应。影响机制检验表明,"融资约束缓解"和"生产率提升"是重点产业政策促进企业出口的重要渠道。异质性分析发现,重点产业政策对外资企业、民营企业、大型企业、东部地区企业出口的促进作用更大;此外,重点产业政策对低外部融资依赖度行业企业出口概率的促进效应更大,而对高外部融资依赖度行业企业出口规模扩张的促进作用更明显。最后,本文还探究了市场自由化对重点产业政策经济效果的影响,发现在市场化程度较高的地区,重点产业政策对企业出口的促进作用更大。本文的研究结论意味着,中国应稳步推进产业政策转型与市场经济体制改革,使"看得见的手"与"看不见的手"共同促进中国出口贸易长期稳健发展。This paper empirically analyzes the influence and mechanism of key-industry policy on firms’export behavior by collecting data about the key industries defined in China’s Five-Year Plan policy documents.The conclusions are as follows.The key-industry policy can significantly promote the export possibilities and scale of Chinese manufacturing firms,mainly via“credit constraint mitigation”and“TFP promotion effect”as revealed by the influence mechanism test.The results of heterogeneity analysis show that the key-industry policy plays a greater role in promoting the export of foreign-funded enterprises,private enterprises,large enterprises and enterprises in the eastern region.We also find that the key-industry policy more obviously promotes the export possibility of firms with low external financing dependence,and the export scale of firms with high external financing dependence.Finally,this paper explores the impact of marketization on the economic effect of key-industry policy,and finds that in regions with a high degree of marketization,the key-industry policy plays a greater role in promoting firms’export.Therefore,China should steadily advance the transformation of industry policy and the reform of market economy system,so that“the visible hand”and“the invisible hand”can jointly promote the long-term and steady development of China’s export trade.

关 键 词：重点产业政策 企业出口 融资约束 全要素生产率 市场自由化 

分 类 号：F740.2[经济管理—国际贸易]