基于公交分担率的公共交通与空气质量协整关系分析  

An Analysis of Cointegration Relationship Between Public Transit and Air Quality of Healthy City Based on the Share Rate of Public Transit

作　　者：温旭丽[1] 杨涛[2] WEN Xuli;YANG Tao

机构地区：[1]东南大学成贤学院土木与交通工程学院 [2]南京林业大学

出　　处：《现代城市研究》2021年第11期77-81,共5页Modern Urban Research

基　　金：江苏省青蓝工程(2018年);江苏省交通运输科技项目(2019Y52);东南大学成贤学院青年基金(z0013)。

摘　　要：文章构建了公共交通与健康城市空气质量协整分析模型,定量分析了公共交通对城市空气质量的影响,:选取二氧化硫浓度年均值、公共交通全方式分担率为定量分析指标,建立向量误差修正模型,分析公共交通和空气质量的协整关系,,对公交全方式分担率和二氧化硫指标的长期均衡关系采用JJ检验法进行协整检验和格兰杰因果关系检验,结果显示二者之间存在长期均衡关系,公交全方式分担率是二氧化硫浓度年均值的格兰杰原因,而后者不是前者的格兰杰原因。This study constructed a co-integration analysis model for public transportation and healthy city air quality,and quantitatively analyzed the impact of public transportation on urban air quality.This study selects the annual average value of sulfur dioxide concentration and the total mode share rate of public transportation as quantitative analysis indicators,establishes a vector error correction model,and analyzes the co-integration relationship between public transportation and air quality.Cointegration test and Granger causality test were carried out on the long-term equilibrium relationship between the public transportation mode sharing rate and sulfur dioxide index.The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the two.A Granger causality test showed that the share rate of public transit is the Granger cause of the annual average concentration of sulfur dioxide,while the latter was not the Granger reason of the former.

关 键 词：公共交通 空气质量 协整关系分析 向量误差修正模型 因果检验 

分 类 号：TU491[建筑科学—土工工程]