湖南省156例有确切暴露时间的新冠肺炎病例潜伏期的研究  

Incubation periods of 156 COVID-19 cases with exact exposure time in Hunan Province

作　　者：赵善露 罗垲炜[1] 黄一伟[1] 胡世雄[1] 李芳彩[1] 肖洁华[1] 曾舸[1] 张恒娇[1] 杨浩[1] 孙倩莱[1] 戴志辉 刘子言 陈生宝 高立冬[1] ZHAO Shan-lu;LUO Kai-wei;HUANG Yi-wei;HU Shi-xiong;LI Fang-cai;XIAO Jie-hua;ZENG Ge;ZHANG Heng-jiao;YANG Hao;SUN Qian-lai;DAI Zhi-hui;LIU Zi-yan;CHEN Sheng-bao;GAO Li-dong(Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention/Hunan Workstation for Emerging Infectious Disease Control and Prevention,Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences,Changsha,Hunan 410005,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南省疾病预防控制中心/中国医学科学院湖南新发突发传染病防治工作站,湖南长沙410005

出　　处：《实用预防医学》2021年第12期1447-1450,共4页Practical Preventive Medicine

基　　金：湖南省重点领域研发计划社会发展领域重点研发项目(2020SK3012湖南省新型冠状病毒感染的肺炎疫情监测系统研究);中国医学科学院中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费项目(2020HY320003湖南省新冠病毒病原学及传播特性研究)。

摘　　要：目的分析156例有确切暴露时间的COVID-19聚集性病例的潜伏期,为其防控策略和措施提供依据。方法收集2020年1—2月湖南省报告的COVID-19聚集性病例资料,根据病例暴露时间和发病时间,采用中位数方法估算COVID-19的潜伏期,采用秩和检验比较不同暴露方式潜伏期的差异,描述3例超长潜伏期病例信息。结果156例有确切暴露时间的确诊病例平均潜伏期7.0 d,四分位数间距Q为5.0 d;53例单源一次暴露病例平均潜伏期6.0 d,四分位数间距Q为5.0 d;103例多次暴露病例平均潜伏期7.5 d,四分位数间距Q为5.0 d。同车、近距离交谈等暴露方式潜伏期(5.0 d)短于聚餐暴露(8.0 d)(Z=-2.589,P=0.01),家庭暴露最短潜伏期(2.0 d)短于非家庭暴露最短潜伏期(5.5 d)(Z=-3.335,P=0.001)。3例病例潜伏期超过14 d,分别为16、16、17 d。结论COVID-19平均潜伏期为7.0 d,家庭暴露导致该病传播风险更高,存在超长潜伏期病例。早发现、早隔离病例和密切接触者,是防止疫情进一步扩散的重要手段。Objective To analyze the incubation periods of 156 COVID-19 cluster cases with exact exposure time,and to provide a basis for COVID-19 prevention and control strategies and measures.Methods Data concerning COVID-19 cluster cases reported in Hunan Province from January to February 2020 were collected.According to the cases’exposure and onset time,the incubation periods of the COVID-19 cases were estimated by median method.Differences in the incubation periods of different exposure modes were compared by rank-sum test,and the information about 3 cases with extra-long incubation periods was described.Results The average incubation period for 156 confirmed cases with exact exposure time was 7.0 days,and the interquartile interval Q was 5.0 days.The average incubation period for 53 cases with single source exposure was 6.0 days,with the interquartile interval Q being 5.0 days.The average incubation period for 103 cases with multiple exposure was 7.5 days,with the interquartile interval Q being 5.0 days.The incubation period(5.0 days)of sharing a same car and close talk exposure was shorter than that of dinner exposure(8.0 days)(Z=-2.589,P=0.01).The shortest incubation period of family exposure(2.0 days)was shorter than that of non-family exposure(5.5 days)(Z=-3.335,P=0.001).The incubation periods of 3 cases exceeded 14 days,which were 16,16 and 17 days,respectively.Conclusion The average incubation period for the COVID-19 cases was 7.0 days.The risk of COVID-19 transmission due to family exposure was higher,and there were cases with extra-long incubation period.Early detection and isolation of the cases and close contacts are important means to prevent further spread of the epidemic.

关 键 词：新型冠状病毒肺炎 潜伏期 流行病学 

分 类 号：R563.14[医药卫生—呼吸系统]