预期寿命、人力资本与提前退休行为  

Life Expectancy,Human Capital and Early Retirement

作　　者：汪伟 王文鹏 WANG Wei;WANG Wenpeng(School of Public Economics and Administration,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics;Shanghai Key Laboratory of Research on Financial Information Technology)

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学公共经济与管理学院、上海市金融信息技术研究重点实验室,200433 [2]上海财经大学公共经济与管理学院,200433

出　　处：《经济研究》2021年第9期90-106,共17页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(71773071);国家社会科学基金重大项目(17ZDA049);上海市浦江人才计划(16PJC034)的资助。

摘　　要：随着人均预期寿命的延长和受教育年限的提高,包括中国在内的世界各国劳动者的实际退休年龄却普遍低于法定退休年龄,呈现提前退休趋势。本文试图在生育受到约束的制度环境下对上述反常现象进行理论解释,通过构建一个动态一般均衡世代交叠(OLG)模型,考察预期寿命延长对劳动者的人力资本投资、退休年龄选择的影响机制,并结合中国的现实经济进行数值模拟。研究表明:当预期寿命提高时,人力资本投资能够在生命周期中获得更高的工资率回报,劳动者在少年期倾向于进行更多的人力资本投资,提高受教育年限;人力资本积累、有效工资率上升和利率下降引起的收入效应超过了替代效应,使得劳动者在老年期增加对闲暇的需求,有能力和意愿提早退休,减少终生劳动供给时间;进一步地,本文发现放松生育控制政策也会使劳动者享受更多闲暇时间的意愿增强,选择提前退休。本文还考察了个体退休行为的异质性,发现随着预期寿命的延长,相对穷人而言,富人的退休年龄和终生劳动供给更低。本文的结论有益于厘清劳动者在老年期的退休决策机理,为如何推进退休制度改革提供理论依据。The study of retirement behavior is an important issue for the academic community or government,because the efficient using of labor resources can be directly influenced by retirement decisions of workers.In his paper The Production of Human Capital and the Life Cycle of Earnings,Ben-Porath(1967)pointed out that life expectancy extension would lead to the increase in years of schooling and working,and retirement ages of workers(Ben-Porath mechanism).However,actual retirement ages of laborers are usually lower than the legal retirement age in reality,showing an early retirement phenomenon.For instance,life expectancy of the male and female in OECD countries has risen from 69.5 years and 72.8 years in 1970 to 80.72 years and 83.36 years respectively in 2019,but actual average retirement age of the male and female decreased from 68.4 years and 66.4 years to 65.4 years and 63.7 years,respectively.The same phenomenon also occurs in China.Life expectancy has grown from 67.9 years in 1982 to 77.3 years in 2019,and years of schooling from 6.26 years in 1990 to 9.32 years in 2019.Although the average life expectancy and the average number of schooling years have shown a rapid growth trend,China’s legal retirement age still follows the old standard set in the 1950 s:60 for men,55 for women cadres and 50 for women workers.Compared with other major countries in the world,China’s current life expectancy is about 4-5 years lower than that of the United States,Germany and other developed economies,but the retirement age,especially for women,is 7-10 years lower than that of these countries.Interestingly,under such a low legal retirement age system,there are still a large number of workers in firms and public sectors choose to retire before the legal retirement age in China.So the problem that why people living longer and spending more time at school rather than working more is presented.How to explain the abnormal phenomenon in theory?Answering these problems is helpful to understand the mechanism of retirement decisions of

关 键 词：预期寿命 提前退休 人力资本投资 动态一般均衡 

分 类 号：D669.6[政治法律—政治学] F249.2[政治法律—中外政治制度]