基于故障树的营运客车重特大道路交通事故链挖掘  

Analysis of serious and major traffic accidents of commercial coaches based on fault tree

作　　者：华禹凯 陈尧 王卫杰 HUA Yukai;CHEN Yao;WANG Weijie(ITS Research Center,China Design Group,Nanjing 210014,China;School of Transportation Engineering,Nanjing Tech University,Nanjing 211816,China)

机构地区：[1]华设集团智能交通研发中心,江苏南京210014 [2]南京工业大学交通运输工程学院,江苏南京211816

出　　处：《现代交通与冶金材料》2021年第6期56-61,共6页Modern Transportation and Metallurgical Materials

摘　　要：为探究我国营运客车重特大道路交通事故的事故特点和影响因素,选取了2008-2018年发生的123起营运客车重特大道路交通事故的数据为研究对象,以事故为顶上事件,人、车、路、环境等类别信息为中间事件和基本事件建立了营运客车重特大道路交通事故故障树模型,挖掘出关键事故链,计算引起事故的各条事故链概率。研究结果表明,营运客车重特大道路交通事故的4条关键事故链为:1)平纵条件为坡道且路面处于潮湿状态;2)驾驶人在边坡地形下超速驾驶引起的操作不当;3)冰雪平直路面的超速驾驶;4)车辆处于刹车失灵的状态。In order to explore the accident characteristics and influencing factors of serious and major traffic accidents of commercial coaches in China,the data of 123 heavy serious and major traffic accidents of commercial coaches occurred during 2008~2018 was selected.With the accident as the top event,people,vehicles,roads,environment as intermediate events and basic events,a fault tree model of serious and major traffic accidents for commercial coaches was established.Using qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis,the probability of each accident chain which caused the accident was calculated.The research results show that the four key accident chains for heavy passenger road traffic accidents are:1)the flat and vertical conditions are ramps and the road surface is wet;2)the driver’s improper operation caused by speeding under the slope terrain;3)speeding on ice and snow on straight roads;4)the vehicle is in a state of brake failure.

关 键 词：重特大道路交通事故 营运客车 故障树分析 事故链 

分 类 号：U491.3[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理] U469.1[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]