人口双向集散对县域城镇化的影响及其空间梯度  

Impact of Bi-directional Population Migration on County-Level Urbanization and Its Spatial Gradient

作　　者：李玉文 侯新烁[1] 李五荣 LI Yuwen;HOU Xinshuo;LI Wurong(Business School fXiangtan University,Xiangtan 411105,Hunan,China)

机构地区：[1]湘潭大学商学院,中国湖南湘潭411105

出　　处：《经济地理》2021年第9期91-102,共12页Economic Geography

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(17CJL019);湖南省教育厅科研优秀青年项目(20B549);湖南省社会科学基金项目(18YBA393);湖南省研究生教育改革研究项目(2020JGYB093)。

摘　　要：人口集聚的向度和深度调整,就会反映为城乡空间分布格局的变化。利用"五普""六普"的"中国人口普查分县资料"以及2018年流动人口动态监测数据(CMDS2018)从县域层面对人口流入和人口流出进行识别和区分,并利用多尺度地理加权回归模型考察县域层面人口双向流动对城镇化的空间异质效应。研究发现:人口流动的空间集聚具有明显的"节点"特征,人口自分散的区县向大城市为中心的城市市辖区的集聚过程十分明显;人口流入和流出的双向集散过程对城镇化有不同的空间非平稳影响;城镇化效应具有显著的空间梯度性;人口负担反映的劳动力不足是制约县域城镇化的重要机制渠道;人口集散过程通过地区人口抚养比调整机制对城镇化形成重要影响;经济发展水平、非农化程度和人口密度也是城镇化实现的重要基础;市辖区依旧是城镇化中心,相比县城具有更强的人口吸纳能力;城镇化要选择何种路径是未来区县发展的重要议题之一。The adjustment of the dimension and depth of population agglomeration will reflect the change of urban-rural spatial distribution pattern. Based on the communiqués of the 5 th and the 6 th National Population Census, and the data from 2018 China Migrants Dynamic Survey(CMDS2018),this paper identifies and differentiates population inflow and outflow at county level,and uses a multi-scale geographical weighted regression model to investigate the heterogeneous spatial effects of bi-directional population flow on county urbanization. The results show that the spatial agglomeration of population flow has an obvious "node" feature, and the process of agglomeration from self-dispersed districts to urban districts is obvious. The bidirectional distribution process of population inflow and outflow has different spatial nonstationary effects on urbanization, and the urbanization effect has a significant spatial gradient. The lack of labor force reflected by population burden is an important mechanism channel that restricts county urbanization. The process of population distribution has an important influence on urbanization through the adjustment mechanism of dependency ratio. The level of economic development,the degree of non-agricultural development and the population density are also important bases for the realization of urbanization. Municipal districts are still the central regions of urbanization and have stronger population absorption capacity than counties. Therefore,which path to choose for urbanization in the future is one of the important issues for the development of counties and districts.

关 键 词：人口流入 人口流出 县域城镇化 多尺度地理加权回归模型 空间梯度 

分 类 号：F061.5[经济管理—政治经济学]