交通应急演练评估的模糊层次分析方法  

A Fuzzy AHP Method for Traffic Emergency Drill Evaluation

作　　者：张安 张健钦[1] 程宇航 ZHANG An;ZHANG Jianqin;CHENG Yuhang(Beijing Jianzhu University,Beijing 100044,China)

机构地区：[1]北京建筑大学,北京100044

出　　处：《综合运输》2021年第11期65-71,107,共8页China Transportation Review

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41771413);国家自然科学基金青年科学基金(41701473);北京市自然科学基金(8202013)。

摘　　要：为提升应急演练质量与效果,建立结构完整、功能全面的突发事件应急演练体系。研究结合北京市雪天交通保障应急预案,筛选评价因素,建立应急演练评价方法,构建5个一级评价因素、17个二级评价因素的多因素多级指标评价体系。确定模糊评价因素评语集,对模糊层次分析法中不足之处做出改进,实现对雪天交通突发事件应急演练评估。通过实例验证,构建具备预案合理性和改进模糊层次分析法的适应性的雪天应急演练模型。In order to improve the quality and effect of emergency drills,an emergency drill system with complete structure and comprehensive functions is established.In this paper,combined with the emergency plan of traffic security in snowy days in Beijing,the evaluation factors are selected,the evaluation method of emergency drill is established,and the multi factor and multi-level index evaluation system with 5 first level evaluation factors and 17 second level evaluation factors is constructed.In order to improve the fuzzy evaluation of the traffic emergency drill,the fuzzy evaluation method used to determine the deficiencies.Through the example verification,this paper constructs a snow emergency drill model that has the rationality of the plan and the adaptability of the improved fuzzy analytic hierarchy process.

关 键 词：应急演练评估 改进模糊层次分析法 雪天交通突发事件 雪天交通保障 应急预案 

分 类 号：U121[交通运输工程]