基于灰色评估理论的某旋转机械的可靠性分配  

RELIABILITY ALLOCATION OF A ROTARY MACHINE BASED ON GREY EVALUATION THEORY

作　　者：钱毅 江超[2] 李楠[2] 李欣业[1] QIAN Yi;JIANG Chao;LI Nan;LI XinYe(School of Mechanical Engineering,Hebei University of Technology,Tianjin 300130,China;Key Laboratory of National Defense Science and Technology about Particle Transport and Enrichment Technology,Institute of Physical and Chemical Engineering of Nuclear Industry,Tianjin 300180,China)

机构地区：[1]河北工业大学机械工程学院,天津300401 [2]核工业理化工程研究院粒子输运与富集技术国防科技重点实验室,天津300180

出　　处：《机械强度》2021年第6期1335-1340,共6页Journal of Mechanical Strength

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(11972145)资助。

摘　　要：为解决在产品研发初期可靠性分配数据信息缺乏,以及影响因素的不确定性和主观评估的局限性等问题,提出了一种结合专家知识经验和能够有效处理不确定信息的灰色评估理论的可靠性分配方法。其核心是采用灰色关联分析方法修正专家对影响因素组合权重的评分结果,得到影响因素的综合权重值后将整体的可靠性指标线性地分配到各部件。以复杂程度、技术难度、重要程度和环境条件作为影响因素,基于四级灰色评估法处理专家评分结果对某旋转机械产品的各部件的可靠性进行了分配,所得结果与旧机型的故障统计数据吻合良好,表明该方法具有较好的有效性和适用性。A comprehensive reliability allocation method, which is applicable to the cases of lack of data in design stage, as well as the complexity of the influence factors and uncertainty of expert evaluation, is presented based on the grey system theory. The key of this method is to modify the weights of influence factors which are associated with expert scoring data by grey correlation analysis before reliability indices are assigned linearly to each subsystem.Based on grey evaluation with 4 levels, the application of this method is illustrated with the reliability allocation of a rotary machine under the consideration that complexity, technical level, importance and environment condition are chosen as influence factors. Compared with the actual faults statistics results, the validity and feasibility of the method is verified.

关 键 词：可靠性分配 灰色系统理论 灰色关联分析 旋转机械 

分 类 号：TB114[理学—概率论与数理统计]