“双循环”新格局与中国工业跨国直接投资研究  

A Study on Transnational Direct Investment in Chinese Industry from the Perspective of "Double Cycle"

作　　者：王昕 董耀武[1] Wang Xin;Dong Yao-wu

机构地区：[1]贵州商学院,贵州550014

出　　处：《亚太经济》2021年第6期97-107,共11页Asia-Pacific Economic Review

基　　金：国家社科基金一般项目“基于混合Copula的中国系统性金融风险测度与稳定研究”(18XTJ004)。

摘　　要：在构建"内循环"产能与跨国直接投资均衡模型的基础上,采用PVAR-GMM自回归方法实证研究2006—2019年中国工业的"双循环"模式,发现中国工业"内循环"产能与跨国直接投资存在负相关关系,但在不同产能发展阶段二者的相互影响存在差异。具体而言,优质阶段工业行业"内循环"产能与跨国直接投资呈现相互推进发展模式,但跨国直接投资的增加却制约转型阶段和低质阶段工业行业的"内循环"产能发展;工业行业人力资源规模对"双循环"模式影响的显著性呈现U形变化,且科技创新的影响效应变化趋势相同。Based on the " Internal Circulation " capacity and transnational direct investment balance model, the research use the PVAR-GMM regression method of empirical research in 2006-2019 China’s industrial "binary" model, found that there is a negative correlation between China’s industrial " Internal Circulation " capacity and transnational direct investment, but the interaction between the two is different in different capacity development stages. To be specific, the "Internal Circulation" capacity and transnational direct investment of China’s high-quality industrial industries are mutually promoting, but the increase of transnational direct investment restricts the development of "Internal Circulation" capacity in the transformation and low-quality industrial industries. The significance of industrial human resource scale on the "Double Cycle" shows a U-shaped change, and the influence of scientific and technological innovation has the same change trend.

关 键 词：“双循环”模式 “内循环”产能 跨国直接投资 人力资源规模 科技创新 

分 类 号：F424[经济管理—产业经济]