1961~2018年海河流域极端降水时空演变特征  

Temporal and Spatial Variation of Extreme Precipitation in Haihe River Basin During 1961-2018

作　　者：刘慧媛 邹磊 邢万里[3] LIU Hui-yuan;ZOU Lei;XING Wan-li(State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China;Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Reated Land Surface Process,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;Center for Strategic Research on Global Mineral Resources,Institute of Mineral Resources,CAGS,Beijing 100037,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,湖北武汉430072 [2]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地水循环及地表过程重点实验室,北京100101 [3]中国地质科学院矿产资源研究所全球矿产资源战略研究中心,北京100037

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2021年第12期1-6,共6页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42101043,41890823)。

摘　　要：基于海河流域35个气象站1961~2018年的逐日降水数据,选取9个具有代表性的极端降水指数,采用Mann-Kendall非参数检验、R/S分析、Morlet小波分析和相关性分析等方法探究海河流域极端降水的时空演变特征。结果表明,1961~2018年流域多数极端降水指数呈减少趋势,其中rx1day、rx5day、R99pTOT指数分别以1.40、2.50、3.12 mm/10a的速率减小;极端降水指数存在较大的空间差异性,东部平原地带的极端降水强度大于西部山区,北京市及其周边地区的极端降水呈较显著的下降趋势;基于R/S分析可得流域极端降水指数未来呈下降趋势,极端降水强度、频率下降;不同极端降水指数序列的周期性存在差异,以5~10、15~18、25~30年为主;除CDD指数外,各极端降水指数与年降水量、汛期降水总量之间均具有较好的相关性。Based on the daily precipitation data of 35 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2018 in the Haihe River Basin, nine extreme precipitation indicators were selected, and Mann-Kendall non-parametric test, R/S analysis, correlation analysis, Morlet wavelet analysis were used to analyze the temporal and spatial characteristics of extreme precipitation in the Haihe River Basin. The results showed that the most extreme precipitation indicators appeared downward trend during 1961-2018. In particular, the rx1 day, rx5 day, and R99 pTOT indicators decreased by 1.40 mm/10 a, 2.50 mm/10 a, 3.12 mm/10 a, respectively. There were large spatial differences in extreme precipitation. The intensity of extreme precipitation in the eastern plains was greater than that in the western mountainous areas. Meteorological stations with obvious trends of extreme precipitation were mainly concentrated in Beijing and surrounding areas. According to the results of R/S analysis, the extreme precipitation indicators of the Haihe River Basin may show a general downward trend in the future, indicating that the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation will decrease. There were differences in the periodicity of different extreme precipitation indices, with periodic changes of 5-10 a, 15-18 a, and 25-30 a being the main ones. Except for CDD, each extreme precipitation index had a good correlation with the annual precipitation or the total precipitation in the flood season.

关 键 词：海河流域 极端降水 时空变化 周期变化 相关性分析 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源]