退水曲线与融雪-降雨径流相结合的枯季径流预报方法研究  

Study on Dry Season Runoff Forecasting Method Based on Recession Curve and Snowmelt-Rainfall Runoff

作　　者：吴亚琪 梁忠民[1] 陈在妮 李佳 胡义明[1] WU Ya-qi;LIANG Zhong-min;CHEN Zai-ni;LI Jia;HU Yi-ming(College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;China Energy Dadu River Production Command Center,Chengdu 610041,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098 [2]国家能源大渡河流域生产指挥中心,四川成都610041

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2021年第12期17-20,共4页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2018YFC0407206,2016YFC0402709);国电大渡河流域水电开发有限公司科技项目(CEZB200505212)

摘　　要：有积雪覆盖流域的枯季径流过程,不仅受控于前期的退水规律,还受春季融雪和降雨的影响,因此其中长期径流预报困难。基于经典退水曲线,在退水过程后期考虑春季融雪和降雨的作用,构建了退水-融雪-降雨径流的统计预报模型。以大渡河丹巴站以上流域为研究对象,基于2009~2014年的枯季气象水文资料对模型进行率定,2015~2016年进行模型预报检验,并与经典退水曲线、新安江模型的结果进行对比。结果表明,退水-融雪-降雨径流的统计预报模型具有更高精度,径流总量预报误差小,预报径流过程与实测径流过程拟合程度高,具有较好的适用性。The runoff process of the dry season in the snow-covered watershed is not only controlled by the law of previous runoff regression,but also affected by spring snowmelt and rainfall,which brings difficulties to the forecast of long-term dry season runoff.Based on the classical recession curve,this paper considers the effects of spring snowmelt and rainfall in the later stage of the recession process,constructs a statistical forecast model of receding water-snowmelt-rainfall runoff.Taking the basin above Danba Station of the Dadu River as the research object,the model was calibrated with the dry season meteorological and hydrological data from 2009 to 2014,and the data from 2015 to 2016 were used for forecast verification,then compared with the results of the classical recession curve and the Xin’anjiang model.The results show that the statistical forecast model of receding water-snowmelt-rainfall runoff has higher accuracy,small forecast error of total runoff,high fitting degree between the forecasted runoff process and the actual measured runoff process,and has good applicability.

关 键 词：枯季径流预报 退水曲线 新安江模型 降雨径流 融雪流量 

分 类 号：P338[天文地球—水文科学] TV121[水利工程—水文学及水资源]