基于地表覆盖及夜间灯光的分区人口空间化——以京津冀地区为例  

Zonal Simulation of Population Distribution Based on Land Cover and Nighttime Light Data:Taking Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei for an Example

作　　者：金耀 李士成 倪永[3] 杨楠[1] JIN Yao;LI Shicheng;NI Yong;YANG Nan(China Institute of Geo-environment Monitoring,Beijing 100081,China;School of Public Administration,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan 430074,China;State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Quality Control in Environmental Monitoring,China National Environmental Monitoring Center,Beijing 100012,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地质环境监测院,北京100081 [2]中国地质大学(武汉)公共管理学院,武汉430074 [3]中国环境监测总站国家环境保护环境监测质量控制重点实验室,北京100012

出　　处：《遥感信息》2021年第5期81-89,共9页Remote Sensing Information

基　　金：全国空间规划试点区资源环境综合地质调查项目(DD20190506)。

摘　　要：高精度的格网人口数据能够详细地表达人口分布的实际情况,是分析区域人口活动和社会经济发展的重要数据。文章以地形复杂且人口空间分布异质性较高的京津冀地区为例,利用地表覆盖数据和NPP/VIIRS夜间灯光数据,综合考虑地形和人口密度因素对研究区进行分区,并基于区县常住人口统计数据建立逐步回归模型,模拟京津冀地区2017年500 m格网人口数据。结果表明:基于地形和人口密度因子的分区建模可提升人口格网化精度,模拟的格网人口数据与乡镇统计人口数据的平均相对误差为32.71%;79.28%的乡镇的人口空间化相对误差小于0.5,精度优于WorldPop人口数据。该方法对地形复杂且人口空间分布异质性较高区域的人口格网化研究具有借鉴意义。Gridding population data with high precision are valuable to analyze regional population activities and social economy.In this study,according to terrain factors and population density,we divided the study area,i.e.,Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region(hereafter BTH),into three regions.Then,based on statistics of permanent population at district or county levels in 2017,NPP/VIIRS nighttime light data and land cover data were used to build a stepwise regression model to simulate population distribution at a resolution of 500 m for BTH.The results show that the accuracy of population spatial simulation can be improved by the zoning simulation based on terrain and population density factors.The average relative error between the simulated population and the statistical population value is 32.71%.The relative error of 79.28%of the towns is less than 0.5.The simulation accuracy of this study is better than that of WorldPop datasets.In a conclusion,the model built in this study can be used to simulate population distribtuion in areas with complex terrain and large population distribution density gap.

关 键 词：人口空间化 京津冀 夜间灯光数据 地表覆盖 NPP/VIIRS 

分 类 号：P208[天文地球—地图制图学与地理信息工程]