直接税对地方政府支出规模的影响研究——基于1999—2019年省级面板的实证分析  

An Empirical Analysis of Impact of Direct Tax on the Scale of Local Government Expenditure:Based on Provincial Panel Data from 1999 to 2019

作　　者：魏福成[1] 任涵琪 WEI Fu-cheng;REN Han-qi

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学财政税务学院 [2]深圳华为集团有限公司

出　　处：《中央财经大学学报》2021年第12期12-24,56,共14页Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics

基　　金：中南财经政法大学中央高校基本科研业务费青年创新项目“征税能力、制度选择与经济发展:理论与实证分析”(项目编号:2722021BZ011)。

摘　　要：自改革开放以来我国进行了多次公共部门改革,但地方政府规模依然没有走出“精简—膨胀—再精简—再膨胀”的循环。税收直接关系到财政收支,而税制结构是税收的重要内容之一,因此税制结构与政府支出规模具有紧密的关系。本文基于我国省级面板数据,以直接税占税收收入的比重(直接税占比)表征税制结构,以财政支出占GDP比重作为政府支出规模的指标,研究发现:直接税占比越高,越能抑制地方政府支出规模的扩张。通过更换变量度量指标、更换样本数据、缩短窗口期、被解释变量滞后一期作为控制变量等方式进行充分的稳健性和内生性检验,以上结果保持稳健。异质性分析表明,一方面随着地方政府支出规模上升,直接税占比对其影响呈现上升趋势;另一方面,直接税对地方政府支出规模的影响在西部地区不显著,在东部和中部地区有显著影响,且在东部地区影响程度更大。机制检验发现,直接税占比的上升通过减少财政幻觉,进而降低地方政府支出规模。本文最后从提高自然人纳税比重、推进结构性减税等提高直接税比重角度提出了对策建议。本文丰富了地方政府支出规模影响因素和税制结构影响效应研究,并对完善我国税制和降低政府支出规模具有重要指导意义。China has carried out many reforms on public sector in the past few decades,but the scale of local government still has not gone out of the cycle of“reduction-expansion-rereduction-reexpansion”.This article analyzes the influence of the proportion of tax revenue of direct tax on the the size of local government spending.We find that the higher the proportion of direct tax is,the more it can restrain the expansion of local government expenditure.Robustness and endogeneity tests are carried out and the above result remained robust.Heterogeneity analysis shows that,on the one hand,as the scale of local government expenditure increases,the proportion of direct tax has bigger influence;on the other hand,the impact of direct tax on the scale of local government expenditure is not significant in the western region,but significant in the eastern and central regions,and the impact is greater in the eastern region.The mechanism test finds that the increase in the share of direct taxes reduces the scale of local government spending by reducing the fiscal illusion.Finally,we provide suggestions to increase the proportion of tax paid by natural persons and promote structural tax reduction.

关 键 词：税制结构 直接税 地方政府支出规模 财政幻觉 

分 类 号：F812.42[经济管理—财政学]