经济增长目标与地方政府财务支持策略——来自地方融资平台的证据  

Economic Growth Target and Local Government Financial Support Strategy:Evidence from Prefecture-level LGFVs

作　　者：刘若鸿 邓晓兰[1] 鄢伟波 许晏君 Liu Ruohong;Deng Xiaolan;Yan Weibo;Xu Yanjun(School of Economics and Finance,Xi,an Jiaotong University;School of Public Finance and Taxation,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law)

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学经济与金融学院,陕西西安710061 [2]中南财经政法大学财政税务学院,湖北武汉430073

出　　处：《经济科学》2021年第6期21-37,共17页Economic Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“减税降费与财政可持续研究”(项目编号:19XJY020);陕西省教育厅人文社科一般专项科学研究项目“新预算制度下陕西省地方债务的新特征及风险控制研究”(项目编号:20JK0187);中南财经政法大学“收入分配与现代财政学科创新引智基地”(项目编号:B20084)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：本文通过匹配2011-2018年地级市经济增长目标与地方融资平台样本发现,在财政压力和晋升压力的驱动下,经济增长目标显著促进了地方政府对融资平台的财务支持,并且在策略上更倾向于采取"资产负债表"端的土地资产注入,而非"利润表"端的政府补贴。旨在规范地方政府预算内债务的债务限额管理制度加剧了地方政府借道融资平台展开预算外融资活动来实现经济增长目标的动机。基于"经济增长目标→财务支持→隐性债务"的逻辑链条,本文进一步估算了经济增长目标与地方政府隐性债务的数量关系,发现经济增长目标每加码1%,地方政府隐性债务增长约4.11万亿元。Combining the information of the local government financing vehicles(LGFVs)and economic growth target of prefecture-level governments from 2011 to 2018,this paper investigates how economic growth target affects the local governments"financial support strategies.The empirical results show that because of fiscal pressure and promotion pressure,economic growth target has a significantly positive effect on the financial support of LGFVs.Compared with subsidy strat-egies,local governments are more inclined to adopt land strategies.Furthermore,this paper finds that the debt limit management system aimed at regulating local governments"on-budget debt and economic decentralization has encouraged the off-budget strategic behavior of local governments to achieve economic growth targets.Based on the logical chain of economic growth target→financial support→implicit debt,this paper further estimates the quantitative relationship between economic growth target and implicit debt of local governments.The results show that for every 1%increase in the economic growth target,the local government implicit debt will increase by about CNY 4.11 trillion.

关 键 词：经济增长目标 地方融资平台 财务支持策略 隐性债务 

分 类 号：F812[经济管理—财政学]