中国地区经济增长对碳排放量的非线性影响研究  

Research on the Nonlinear Effect of Regional Economic Growth on Carbon Emissions in China

作　　者：姜国刚[1,2] 左鹏 陈思文 李利亭 JIANG Guogang;ZUO Peng;CHEN Siwen;LI Liting(Wu Jianglian School of Economics,Changzhou University,Changzhou Jiangsu 213159,China;Research Base of Jiangsu Energy Strategy,Changzhou Jiangsu 213159,China;School of Business,Changzhou University,Changzhou Jiangsu 213159,China)

机构地区：[1]常州大学吴敬琏经济学院,江苏常州213159 [2]江苏能源战略研究基地,江苏常州213159 [3]常州大学商学院,江苏常州213159

出　　处：《生态经济》2021年第12期13-22,共10页Ecological Economy

基　　金：江苏省社科应用研究精品工程课题“碳中和背景下金融支持江苏新能源产业高质量发展对策研究”(21SWB-018);江苏省“333工程”科研资助立项项目。

摘　　要：把握影响碳排放的关键因素,分析碳排放区域差异形成的深层次原因,寻求减排区域实施路径,对于我国发展绿色经济有着重要的理论与现实意义。论文基于当前中国碳排放和经济增长的区域差异现状,提出“经济增长对碳排放影响非线性”的假设,针对1999—2016年中国30个省份的数据,基于修正后的STIRPAT模型进行了面板门限估计及检验。主要结论如下:GDP水平对碳排放的影响存在单门限效应,GDP增长速度对碳排放的影响存在双门限效应,根据估计结果划分出六个象限,划分出我国不同地区所处象限,并对碳排放区域差异的形成原因给予了深层次解释。最后,提出应因地制宜地发展低碳经济的政策建议。Grasping the key factors that affect carbon emissions,analyzing the deep-seated causes of regional differences in carbon emissions,and seeking the implementation path of emission reduction regions have important theoretical and practical significance for the development of a green economy in my country.Based on the current status of regional differences in China’s carbon emissions and economic growth,this paper proposes the hypothesis of“non-linear impact of economic growth on carbon emissions”,and estimates the panel threshold based on the revised STIRPAT model based on the data of 30 provinces in China from 1999 to 2016 and inspection.The main conclusions are as follows:The GDP level has a single threshold effect on carbon emissions,and the GDP growth rate has a double threshold effect on carbon emissions.According to the estimated results,six quadrants will be divided into different regions in China.It also gave an in-depth explanation of the causes of regional differences in carbon emissions.Finally,it puts forward policy recommendations in order to adapt to local conditions to develop a low-carbon economy.

关 键 词：碳排放量 经济增长区制 区域差异 面板门限模型 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]