人工切坡下滑坡易发性评价中权重修正方法研究——以赣州市沙地镇为例  

Research on the method of weight correction for landslide susceptibility with artificial cutting slope:A case study of Shadi Town,Ganzhou city

作　　者：刘婷[1] 谭建民 郭飞 潘宇晨 王力[1] LIU Ting;TAN Jianmin;GUO Fei;PAN Yuchen;WANG Li(Key Laboratory of Geological Hazards on Three Gorges Reservoir Area(China Three Gorges University),Ministry of Education,Yichang 443002,China;Wuhan Geological Survey Center of China Geological Survey(Central South Geological Science and Technology Innovation Center),Wuhan 430205,China)

机构地区：[1]三峡库区滑坡灾害教育部重点实验室三峡大学,湖北宜昌443000 [2]中国地质调查局武汉地质调查中心中南地质科技创新中心,湖北武汉430205

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2021年第5期217-225,共9页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41372359,41807294,41701013);中国地质调查局项目(DD20190716);中国地质调查局项目(202018000000180602);三峡后续工作滑坡防治科学研究项目(0001212020CC60002)。

摘　　要：易发性评价指标的权重值直接影响评价结果的精度,从而影响易发性和整个风险评估的准确性。为了更合理的确定指标权重,先通过地理探测器探测指标的空间分异性从而初步确定主要影响指标及其权重,再建立受人工切坡和降雨影响的地质模型,并通过Geo-studio软件建立切坡和降雨指标对边坡稳定性的关系,利用计算结果修正部分指标权重,并以赣州市沙地镇为例开展易发性评价。由正确率检验结果可知,修正指标权重前AUC值为76.3%;修正指标权重后AUC值为83.1%,各评价指标贡献度的合理性提高,评价结果的精度也得到有效提升,此方法可为类似区域(如受人类工程活动影响强烈区)易发性评价提供借鉴与参考。The accuracy of landslide susceptibility results is directly affected by the index weight value,so the susceptibility and the accuracy of the entire risk assessment are affected.In order to determine the index weight more reasonably,the main indexes and their weights were preliminarily determined by the spatial differentiation of the detection indexes of geographical detectors.The geological model of slope affected by artificial cutting and rainfall was established,and the relationship between the two factors and slope stability was established by Geo-studio software.Then some index weights were corrected by calculation results,and taking Shadi Town of Ganzhou City as an example for susceptibility evaluation.According to the accuracy test results,the AUC values before and after the correction of index weight were 76.3 % and 83.1 %,respectively.The rationality of the weight of each evaluation index has been improved,so that the accuracy of the evaluation results has been effectively improved.This method could provide reference for susceptibility evaluation of similar areas,such as areas strongly affected by artificial engineering activities.

关 键 词：人工切坡 地理探测器 数值模拟 权重修正 滑坡易发性 

分 类 号：TU4[建筑科学—土工工程] P642.22[天文地球—工程地质学]