2010-2018年河北省农业干旱脆弱性评价  

Vulnerability assessment of agricultural droughts in Hebei Province from 2010 to 2018

作　　者：袁重乐 石晓昕 钱会[1,2] 王海科[1,2] 杨法暄 YUAN Chongle;SHI Xiaoxin;QIAN Hui;WANG Haike;YANG Faxuan(School of Water and Environment,Chang’an University,Xi’an 710054,China;Key Laboratory of Subsurface Hydrology and Ecological Effect in Arid Region(Chang’an University),Ministry of Education,Xi’an 710054,China)

机构地区：[1]长安大学水利与环境学院,陕西西安710054 [2]旱区地下水文与生态效应教育部重点实验室,陕西西安710054

出　　处：《水资源与水工程学报》2021年第5期233-240,共8页Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(300102290401、300102291401、300102291402、300102291507);国家111引智计划项目(B08039)。

摘　　要：农业干旱是我国目前农业生产中面临的主要问题之一,研究其脆弱性是科学应对干旱的前提。以河北省11个地级市作为研究对象,从暴露度、敏感性、适应能力3个方面选取14个指标构建农业干旱脆弱性评价体系,采用综合指数法对河北省2010、2014和2018年的农业干旱脆弱性进行时空分析,并通过因子贡献度模型分析主要影响因子。结果表明:从时间角度分析,2010-2018年河北省农业干旱脆弱性在整体上呈先上升后下降的趋势;从空间角度分析,2018年除石家庄市和承德市外,其余各地级市均处于中等及以下脆弱水平;从因子贡献度模型来看,总用水量对河北省农业干旱脆弱性的影响最大。因此,提高用水管理能力和居民节水意识,减小总用水量是降低河北省农业干旱脆弱性的关键。At present,droughts is one of the most prominent problems threatening the development of agriculture in China.The study on agricultural drought vulnerability is the premise of scientific response to droughts.Taking 11 prefecture-level cities in Hebei Province as research objects,we selected fourteen indicators from three aspects of exposure,sensitivity and adaptive capacity to construct an agricultural drought vulnerability assessment system.The comprehensive index method was used to conduct a spatio-temporal analysis of agricultural drought vulnerability of Hebei Province in 2010,2014 and 2018.Besides,the main influencing factors were analyzed by factor contribution model.The results show that the agricultural drought vulnerability of Hebei Province from 2010 to 2018 showed an overall upward trend and then a downward trend temporally;from spatial perspective,all the prefecture-level cities were at a vulnerability level of medium or below in 2018,except Shijiazhuang City and Chengde City.According to the factor contribution model,the total water consumption had the greatest impact on the agricultural drought vulnerability of Hebei Province.Therefore,improving water management capabilities,encouraging the residents’awareness of water-saving and reducing total water consumption are the suggested key measures targeting the agricultural drought vulnerability of Hebei Province.

关 键 词：农业干旱脆弱性 暴露度 敏感性 适应能力 河北省 

分 类 号：TV93[水利工程—水利水电工程]