“一带一路”沿线国家文化多样性利于中国数字服务出口吗?  

Does cultural diversity within countries along the Belt and Road promote efficiency of China’s digital services export?

作　　者：白树强[1] 肖雯 Bai Shuqiang;Xiao Wen(University of International Business and Economics,Beijing 100029)

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院,北京100029

出　　处：《上海经济》2021年第6期33-48,共16页Shanghai Economy

基　　金：省部级政府部门委托项目“对外开放体制研究”(19HX006);对外经济贸易大学研究生科研创新基金“文化距离与数字服务贸易”(202033)。

摘　　要：逆势快速增长的数字服务贸易既是破解世界经济低迷的新一轮动力,也是推动中国产业数字化转型、拓展国际市场新合作空间、改善服务贸易逆差结构的重要来源。不同于文化差异的显性贸易抑制作用,文化多样性的数字服务贸易效应更加隐形。基于贸易成本理论和时变随机前沿引力模型,以UNESCO《文化多样性公约》为代理变量,实证分析“一带一路”沿线58国文化多样性特征对中国2005—2019年数字服务出口效率的影响。研究发现:第一,通过扩大贸易开放度和缓解文化距离贸易抑制作用,贸易伙伴国境内的文化多样性因素显著增加了中国数字服务出口额约11.07%,且这种正向作用在发达经济体中更明显。第二,通过时变随机前沿引力模型估算,中国同“一带一路”沿线58国数字服务贸易效率整体较高,但区域贸易潜力差异较大。中亚、南亚、南欧地区潜力很大,西亚地区潜力适中,东南亚、东亚、南欧、北欧整体贸易效率较高。据此,中国应及时把握沿线各国文化多样性环境提供的数字服务出口增长空间,积极协调中国与各国的数字服务贸易制度安排,共商共建公平合理的数字贸易开放合作平台。The counter trend and rapid growth of digital service trade is not only a new driving force to change the world economic downturn,but also benefit for China specifically in industrial digitalized transformation,international trade market expansion,as well as services trade deficit reduction.By contrast to obvious negation trade effect of cultural difference,cultural diversity may have more invisible effect on digital services trade.Based on trade cost theory,this paper empirically analyzes the effect of cultural diversity within 58 partners along the Belt and Road,on Chinese digital services trade from 2005-2019,by the method of time-varying stochastic frontier gravity model and the indicator of UNESCO’s Convention on the Protection and Promotion of the Diversity of Cultural Expressions.Fundamentally,importers’cultural diversity has a robust positive effect on China’s digital services export,specifically,a possible increasement of 11.07%.Trade efficiency is high as a whole while large variance among areas.By turn,trade potentials of Central Asia,South Asia,Southern Europe,Western Asia,Southeast Asia,East Asia,Southern Europe,Northern Europe are decreasing.Considering the heterogeneous trade potentialities among different countries,it is advisable to negotiate bilateral services trade regulations and sign multilateral free services trade agreements.

关 键 词：数字贸易 文化多样性 “一带一路” 贸易效率 服务出口 

分 类 号：F742[经济管理—国际贸易]