安徽省一次强对流降水过程闪电资料同化数值模拟试验  

Numerical Experiment of Lightning Data Assimilation for a Severe Convective Precipitation Process in Anhui Province

作　　者：刘辉 章昊 字俣丞 麦立 王京景 李志 Liu Hui;Zhang Hao;Zi Yucheng;Mai Li;Wang Jingjing;Li Zhi(State Grid Corporation of China(SGCC),Hefei 230000,China;Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China;Anhui Jiyuan Software Co.LTD,Hefei 230000,China)

机构地区：[1]国网安徽省电力有限公司,合肥230000 [2]中国科学院大气物理研究所,北京100029 [3]安徽继远软件有限公司,合肥230000

出　　处：《气象与环境科学》2021年第6期30-39,共10页Meteorological and Environmental Sciences

基　　金：国网安徽省电力有限公司科技项目(B31200200004)。

摘　　要：利用闪电定位资料、安徽电网地面微气象观测资料、探空资料和WRF中尺度数值模式及其3DVAR资料同化系统,对2020年6月15日安徽地区一次强对流降水过程进行同化模拟,分别设计了由闪电、地面和探空资料组成的同化对比试验,分析了闪电资料同化对模式初值及24 h累积降水预报的改进能力。结果表明:单独同化闪电资料对模式初始场的相对湿度及24 h降水模拟有一定程度的改进,但改进效果不如同化地面和探空资料的明显;在地面探空资料同化的基础上增加闪电资料同化,能进一步改善模式的初始场,使其更加接近再分析场,并在逐6 h积分过程中,能更好地模拟出对流降水有关的物理量变化及强降雨带的位置,提高了24 h累积降水的模拟能力,对中雨以上量级的降水模拟效果提升尤为明显。另外,增加闪电资料同化,能明显地减少降水模拟的均方根误差。Using lightning location data,surface micrometeorological observation data of Anhui power grid,radiosonde data,WRF mesoscale numerical model and its 3DVAR data assimilation system,a severe convective precipitation process that occurred in in Anhui Province on June 15,2020 is simulated.Besides,assimilation comparison experiments composed of lightning,surface and radiosonde data are designed respectively,and the improvement ability of lightning data assimilation to the model initial value and 24 h accumulated precipitation prediction is analyzed.The results show that the assimilation of lightning data alone can improve the relative humidity of the initial field and the simulation of 24 h precipitation to a certain extent,but the improvement effect is not as obvious as the assimilation of surface and radiosonde data.Adding lightning data assimilation on the base of surface and radiosonde data assimilation can further improve the initial field of the model and make it closer to the reanalysis field.Moreover,in the process of 6 h accumulated precipitation prediction,it can better simulate the changes of physical quantities related to severe convective precipitation and the position of heavy rain belt,and can improve the simulation ability of 24 h accumulated precipitation.The improvement of precipitation simulation above moderate rain is particularly significant.In addition,adding lightning data assimilation can effectively reduce the Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)of precipitation simulation.

关 键 词：WRF中尺度数值模式 强对流降水 闪电资料同化 相对湿度 24 h累积降水 均方根误差 

分 类 号：P427.32[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]