房产“安全资产幻觉”下的资产选择及其价格效应  

Asset Selection and Its Price Effect under the“Safe Asset Illusion”of Real Estate

作　　者：李腊生[1] 张冕 乔雪雅 LI La-sheng;ZHANG Mian;QIAO Xue-ya(School of Statistics,Tianjin University of Finance and Economics,Tianjin 300222,China)

机构地区：[1]天津财经大学统计学院,天津300222

出　　处：《统计与信息论坛》2021年第12期47-57,共11页Journal of Statistics and Information

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“我国系统性金融风险底线识别及风险化解路径研究”(20BTJ038)。

摘　　要：基于中国房价数据与股价数据多尺度的比较考察,针对房价年度收益率“只涨不跌”的现实,提出中国居民房产“安全资产幻觉”假设,对房产“安全资产幻觉”形成的原因进行探讨,在心理账户与行为资产组合框架下构建居民家庭资产选择模型,通过对模型求解及因素分析,进而对中国居民家庭房产“安全资产幻觉”下的资产选择行为进行深入剖析。借鉴货币幻觉理论,分别从替代效应和财富效应两个方面论证居民家庭资产选择行为下的房价泡沫效应。实证分析表明:中国居民家庭的房产选择满足安全账户的线性需求函数特征,对待安全资产与风险资产具有不同的选择模式,且满足心理账户说。最后提出还原房产风险资产属性的相关政策主张。Based on the multi-scale comparison of housing price data and stock price data in China,aiming at the reality that the annual house price yield“only rising but not falling”,a hypothesis of the“safe asset illusion”of Chinese residents’real estate is proposed.On the basis,the reasons for the formation of the real estate“safe asset illusion”are discussed,and a model of residential household asset choice is constructed under the framework of psychological account and behavioural asset portfolio.Through solving the model and analysing the factors,the asset selection behavior of Chinese residents under the“safe asset illusion”of real estate is analyzed.And drawing on the money illusion theory,demonstrates the housing price bubble effect of household asset selection behavior from two aspects of substitution effect and wealth effect.The empirical analysis shows that Chinese households’real estate choices satisfy the linear demand function characteristic of the security account and have different patterns of choice between safe and risk assets,which satisfy the psychological account.Finally,the policy ideas related to restoring the real estate risk asset property are put forward.

关 键 词：房产“安全资产幻觉” 替代效应 财富效应 房价泡沫 风险资产 

分 类 号：F830.59[经济管理—金融学]