基于“资源-项目-需求”链的分布式可再生能源项目适应度研究  

Research on the Fitness of Distributed Renewable Energy Project Based on "Resource-Project-Demand" Chain

作　　者：赵振宇 张垚 樊伟光 ZHAO Zhenyu;ZHANG Yao;FAN Weiguang(Beijing Key Laboratory of New Energy and Low Carbon Development,School of Economics and Management,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206)

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学经济与管理学院,新能源电力与低碳发展研究北京市重点实验室,北京102206

出　　处：《系统科学与数学》2021年第8期2217-2233,共17页Journal of Systems Science and Mathematical Sciences

基　　金：北京市自然科学基金项目(8192043)资助课题。

摘　　要：对分布式可再生能源规划建设项目在资源与需求要素间适应水平实施评价,可为项目科学决策、规划优化、实施效果改进提供依据.针对分布式可再生能源项目对上下游双侧响应适应性问题,定义了 R-P-D链适应度和适应指数概念,基于可再生能源项目开发利用特征,在考虑广义资源条件和用户需求下将民意、规划、土地碳承载、电力系统、战略等指标纳入,拓展基于R-P-D链视角的可再生能源项目适应度体系,建立主客观结合的矩估计理论最优组合赋权底层指标分值计算方法,构建以项目与资源侧、项目与需求侧协调度为权重,以R-P和D-P匹配评分为数值的适应度综合模型.将分布式可再生能源项目R-P-D链适应度模型应用于分布式光伏发电项目验证了所提模型的优越性和适用性,提出R-P-D链三维适应度坐标轴和匹配评价量表,划分R-P-D链适应指数区间,定量确定项目适应度、匹配类别和适应指数,为项目决策、优化、效果评定提供新方法.The fitness evaluation between resources and demand factors of distributed renewable energy construction planning projects can provide the basis for scientific decision-making,planning optimization and improvement of implementation effect.In order to clearly describe the adaptability of distributed renewable energy projects to the upstream and downstream bilateral response,the concepts of fitness and fitness index of R-P-D chain were defined.Based on the development and utilization characteristics of renewable energy projects,the fitness evaluation system was expanded with perspective of R-P-D chain which incorporating indicators of generalized resource conditions and user demand such as public opinion,planning,land carbon-bearing capacity,power system and strategy.A bottom-level index calculation method was established based on the moment estimation theory for optimal combination weight of the subjective and objective.The fitness comprehensive model was constructed in which the coordination degree of project and resource side,project and demand side were taken as weight,and R-P and D-P matching scores were taken as value.Moreover,the distributed renewable energy project fitness model based on R-P-D chain was applied to distributed photovoltaic power generation projects to verify the superiority and applicability of the proposed model.The R-P-D chain three-dimensional fitness axis and matching evaluation scale were proposed,the R-PD chain fitness index interval was divided,and the project fitness,matching category and fitness index were quantitatively determined.This theory provides a new method for project decision-making,optimization and effect evaluation.

关 键 词：分布式可再生能源项目 资源-项目-需求(R-P-D) 评价指标 矩估计组合权重 适应度 匹配 

分 类 号：TK01[动力工程及工程热物理]