基于系统动力学的宁波生态国土建设水平预测评价  

Prediction and evaluation of ecological land construction level in Ningbo city based on system dynamics

作　　者：赵宇[1] 李伟芳 傅杰超 刘婉丽 周悦 ZHAO Yu;LI Weifang;FU Jiechao;LIU Wanli;ZHOU Yue(Department of Geography&Spatial Information Techniques,Ningbo University,Zhejiang Ningbo 315211,China;Department of Civil Engineering,Ningbo University,Zhejiang Ningbo 315211,China;Zhejiang Academy of Safety Science and Technology,Zhejiang Hangzhou 310012,China)

机构地区：[1]宁波大学地理与空间信息技术系,浙江宁波315211 [2]宁波大学土木工程系,浙江宁波315211 [3]浙江省应急管理科学研究院,浙江杭州310012

出　　处：《上海国土资源》2021年第4期39-44,共6页Shanghai Land & Resources

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“东海区大陆海岸带高强度开发约束下的陆海统筹水平演化及冲突空间协同优化”(41976209)。

摘　　要：分析宁波市国土利用现状与生态问题,研判未来宁波市生态国土建设状态。围绕国土资源、国土环境、国土经济子系统构建宁波市生态国土建设评价指标体系,基于系统动力学方法运用Vensim软件构建宁波市生态国土建设系统动力学模型,提出4种情景模式进行模拟,并采用熵权TOPSIS模型,在2007年至今相关基础数据基础上,分析评价至2026年宁波市生态国土建设水平。主要结论有:2019~2026年不同情景模式下宁波市生态国土建设水平保持上升趋势,且水平提升速度于2023年起逐渐变缓,资源环境优先模式和全面优化模式下生态国土建设水平相对较高;从结果看宁波市当前的国土开发强度对生态环境造成的负担较重,具体表现为模拟情景模式下趋势延续模式和经济优先模式产生的环境负荷远大于资源环境优先模式和全面优化模式。In this study,the current situation of land use and ecological problems in Ningbo city is first analyzed,and the ecological land construction states of Ningbo in the subsequent eight years are predicted by simulation.The evaluation index system of ecological land construction was constructed by focusing on three subsystems:land resources,environment,and economy.Subsequently,the dynamic model of the Ningbo ecological land construction system was constructed using Vensim software based on the system dynamics method.Simultaneously,the level of ecological land construction from 2019 to 2026 is evaluated by applying the entropy TOPSIS model.The results show that:(1)there is a long-term upward trend in the level of ecological land construction in Ningbo,of which the speed gradually slows down from 2023.The level of ecological land construction is relatively high under the priority mode of resource environment and the mode of comprehensive optimization;(2)From the results,the current intensity of land development in Ningbo City has caused a heavy burden on the ecological environment,which is reflected in the environmental load produced by the trend continuation model and economic priority mode in the simulated scenario mode,which is much larger than that of the resource,environment priority modes,and overall optimization modes.

关 键 词：生态国土 建设水平 预测评价 系统动力学 熵权TOPSIS模型 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济]