人口老龄化对中国制造业国际竞争力的影响研究——基于贸易增加值的视角  

Research on the Impact of Population Aging on the International Competitiveness of China’s Manufacturing Industry——Based on the Perspective of Trade Value Added

作　　者：袁辰 张晓嘉 姜丙利 张兆安[1] YUAN Chen;ZHANG Xiao-jia;JIANG Bing-li;ZHANG Zhao-an(Institute of Economics,Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences,200020)

机构地区：[1]上海社会科学院经济研究所,200020

出　　处：《上海经济研究》2021年第11期59-68,共10页Shanghai Journal of Economics

摘　　要：本文通过贸易增加值前向分解法来度量中国制造业的国际竞争力,并在此基础上,将中国贸易二元结构纳入分析中,利用2003-2015年中国制造业面板数据,系统地剖析人口老龄化对中国制造业国际竞争力的影响。研究结果表明:在不同的情形下,人口老龄化对中国制造业国际竞争力影响的方向和机制略有差异。在不区分贸易类型和一般贸易情形中,老龄化进程的加快在劳动力禀赋效应作用下抑制了中国制造业国际竞争力的提高;在加工贸易情形下,老龄化程度的加深则在劳动力禀赋效应、劳动力质量效应以及研发投入效应的作用下促进了中国制造业国际竞争力的提高。This article uses the forward decomposition method of trade value added to measure the international competitiveness of China’s manufacturing industry, and on this basis, it incorporates the dual structure of China’s trade into the analysis, using the panel data of China’s manufacturing industry from 2003 to 2015 to systematically analyze the impact of population the aging on the international competitiveness of China’s manufacturing industry. The research results show that under different circumstances, the direction and mechanism of the impact of population aging on the international competitiveness of China’s manufacturing industry are slightly different. In the case of no distinction between trade types and general trade, the acceleration of the aging process has inhibited the increase in the international competitiveness of China’s manufacturing industry under the effect of labor endowment;in the case of processing trade, the deepening of the aging degree is due to the effect of labor endowment, and the labor quality effect and the effect of R&D investment have promoted the improvement of the international competitiveness of China’s manufacturing industry.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 贸易增加值 国际竞争力 中介效应 作用机制 

分 类 号：F241[经济管理—劳动经济]