时空需求差异下应急物资预储系统构建及仿真  

Construction and Simulation of Emergency Material Pre-storage System under Space-time Demand Difference

作　　者：刘艳[1] 钱坤 张艳萍 LIU Yan;QIAN Kun;ZHANG Yan-ping(School of Logistics,Beijing Wuzi University,Beijing 101149,.China)

机构地区：[1]北京物资学院物流学院,北京101149

出　　处：《系统工程》2021年第6期58-69,共12页Systems Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71801016);北京市教委社科计划重点项目(SZ201910037019);北京市长城学者培养计划项目(CIT&TCD20190320)。

摘　　要：为探索面临突发公共卫生事件时不同区域的应急物资预储,根据以需判储的原则,考虑时空双维度的应急物资需求差异,并引入动静结合的储备机制,构建新应急物资预储系统,最后以北京市为案例,进行此系统有效性检验以及与传统预储系统的对比分析。研究发现:(1)在系统功能上,此系统可容纳不同区域需求的差异及不同阶段需求的变化,实现产能协调时机判断及预储规模准确预测等;(2)在具体实践中,此系统在确保预储稳定性和合理性前提下,可降低40%左右的总应急物资储备量,避免前期物资浪费和后期物资冗余,实现政府应急财政减负,提升物资预储工作科学性。根据研究结果,提出建立区域应急物资差异化需求信息管理平台等建议。In order to explore the pre-storage of emergency supplies in different regions in the face of public health emergencies, this paper based on the principle of "demand-based pre-storage", considers the difference for the emergency supplies in both spatial and temporal dimensuins, and introduces the dynamic and static reserve mechanism to build a new emergency supplies pre-storage system. Finally, this paper takes Beijing for example to test the validity of this system and make a comparative analysis with traditional pre-storage system. The research findings are as follows:(1) In terms of system functions, the system can accommodate the differences of demands in different regions and the changes of demands in different stages, and realize the timing judgment of capacity coordination and the accurate prediction of pre-storage scale, et al;(2) In practice, on the premise of ensuring the stability and rationality of pre-storage, this system can reduce about 40% of the total emergency material reserves, avoid material waste in the early stage and material redundancy in the later stage, reduce the government’s emergency financial burden, and improve the scientific nature of material pre-storage. According to the research results, this paper proposes the establishment of regional emergency materials differentiated demand information management platform and other suggestions.

关 键 词：应急物资预储 时空需求差异 系统动力学 公共卫生事件 

分 类 号：F253[经济管理—国民经济] N941[自然科学总论—系统科学]