有限运力条件下灾民安置救助所需应急物资的调度优化研究  

Optimization Research on Relief Supplies Scheduling in Post-Disaster Resettlement Under Limited Transportation Capacity

作　　者：杜林 汪翔 王熹徽[1] DU Lin;WANG Xiang;WANG Xihui(School of Management,University of Science and Technology of China,Hefei 230026)

机构地区：[1]中国科学技术大学管理学院,合肥230026

出　　处：《系统科学与数学》2021年第9期2425-2443,共19页Journal of Systems Science and Mathematical Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(72071189)资助课题。

摘　　要：大型灾害发生后应急运力短期内处于紧缺状态,必须对各类应急物资的运输次序加以权衡.文章统筹考虑灾民安置所需救灾帐篷和食物的协同运输问题,以安置点最终留存人数最大化为目标建立多阶段应急物资运输模型,并从匮乏水平阈值视角对食物配送延迟所带来的痛苦加以约束.以雅安地震为背景进行数值计算,结果表明为使安置工作实现最大成效,在确保灾民匮乏水平处于可接受范围的前提下,灾害救援初期应优先保障救灾帐篷的运输,而非传统观点所认为的持续运输食物.研究发现匮乏水平阈值作为外生变量调节运力对安置点最终留存人数的影响,决策者需结合实际情况灵活调整安置点生活标准,综合运力和匮乏水平阈值两方面因素制定应急物资运输方案.After a major disaster,victims were immediately evacuated to a safe area.The victims desperately need tents as shelters.In addition,they also need food,clothing and other materials to survive.In the absence of sufficient transportation capacity,the government have to decide which kind of materials should be sent first,and determine the deliver number of each material.In this paper we consider two critical emergency supplies,including food and tents.For one thing,to house more people,the government should allocate more transportation resources to the tents,and deliver them to the settlement as early as possible.For another,the delay in food delivery will cause suffers to the victims.To deal with this dilemma,this paper established a dynamic multi-stage emergency supplies dispatching model to maximize the number people retained in the safe area.The model restricts the victim’s food deprivation level within an acceptable and reasonable threshold,therefore the transportation plan can ensure the victims’ live in a certain level.Under a major earthquake setting,the paper showed a calculation example and provided a sensitivity analysis of transportation capacity and deprivation level threshold.The traditional view holds that food should be continuously transported to affected areas immediately after a disaster,however the analysis results suggest that tents should get priority in relief delivery scheduling once the victims food deprivation level could be controlled within a reasonable threshold.The sensitivity analysis results also indicate that the deprivation level threshold acts as an exogenous variable that regulates the influence of transportation capacity on the final retention people in resettlement sites.When developing relief delivery schedule,the decision makers should take both transportation capacity and deprivation level threshold into account,and adjust the victims’ living standard depending on the actual situation.

关 键 词：灾民安置 应急物流 应急物资 整数规划 匮乏水平 

分 类 号：F259.21[经济管理—国民经济] D632.5[政治法律—政治学]