金融集聚时空演变的空间Markov链分析:2006-2019年  

Spatial Markov Chain Analysis of Spatio-temporal Evolution of Financial Agglomeration:2006-2019

作　　者：傅娟[1] 蔡青青[2] 克甝[3] 蔡祥锋 Fu Juan

机构地区：[1]国家信息中心大数据发展部,北京100045 [2]湖北科技学院经济与管理学院,湖北咸宁437001 [3]新疆财经大学统计与数据科学学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830012 [4]广东技术师范大学财经学院,广东广州510665

出　　处：《金融理论与实践》2021年第12期26-35,共10页Financial Theory and Practice

基　　金：广东省软科学研究项目“粤港澳大湾区区域创新系统协同研究”(2019A101002070);广东省教育科学规划项目“疫情经济下粤港澳大湾区中小微企业融资政策研究”(2020GXJK092)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：根据金融集聚的空间依赖性,将我国省域金融集聚在时间与空间维度上的演化特征结合起来,利用金融集聚的空间滞后对传统Markov链进行校正,构建空间Markov链,在地理背景的影响视角下对我国省域金融集聚的时空演变特征进行更加深入的分析。研究发现:(1)无论是金融集聚水平还是银行业集聚水平、证券业集聚水平、保险业集聚水平,都整体偏低,且空间非均衡特征显著;(2)沿海、内陆与沿边地区金融集聚分别集中在高水平、中低水平和低水平,各地区内部的绝对差异呈继续扩大的演进趋势,加剧了各地区内部实体经济极化发展问题,不利于区域经济水平整体性提高;(3)金融集聚的“富裕俱乐部”和“贫困俱乐部”现象共存,沿海地区对内陆和沿边地区的虹吸效应明显,沿边地区内部的多极化问题突出,省域间金融集聚差异短期内较难消除。据此提出应坚定不移地执行区域金融协调发展战略引导下的相关政策,充分发挥金融集聚的辐射效应,打破“近墨者黑”的困局及因地制宜、精准施策等对策建议。According to the spatial dependence of financial agglomeration,this paper combines the evolution characteristics of provincial financial agglomeration in time and space dimensions.The spatial lag of financial agglomeration is used to correct the traditional Markov chain,and the spatial Markov chain is constructed.From the perspective of geographical background,this paper makes a more indepth analysis of the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of provincial financial agglomeration in China.The main conclusions are as follows:First of all,both the level of financial agglomeration and the agglomeration level of banking,securities and insurance are on the low side as a whole,and there are great differences among provinces,and the characteristics of spatial disequilibrium are remarkable.Secondly,financial agglomeration in coastal,inland and border areas is mainly concentrated in high level,low level and low level,and the absolute difference of financial agglomeration within each region continues to expand and evolve.This will exacerbate the polarization of the regional internal real economy development,not conducive to the overall improvement of regional economic level.Thirdly,the“rich club”and“poor club”of financial resources agglomeration coexist,the problem of multipolarization is prominent,and the difference of financial agglomeration between provinces is difficult to be eliminated in a short period of time.Therefore,this paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions,such as unswervingly implementing the overall strategic policy of coordinated development of regional finance,giving full play to the radiation effect of financial agglomeration,breaking the dilemma of“near black”,adjusting measures to local conditions and implementing precise policies.

关 键 词：金融集聚 时空演变 Kernel密度 空间Markov链 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学]