2020-2021年供暖季亚洲LNG现货价格异常波动及启示  

Abnormal Fluctuation of Asian LNG Spot Prices in 2020-2021 Heating Season and Its Enlightenment

作　　者：闫涵 Yan Han(China International United Petroleum&Chemicals Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100728,China)

机构地区：[1]中国国际石油化工联合有限责任公司,北京100728

出　　处：《当代石油石化》2021年第11期20-24,共5页Petroleum & Petrochemical Today

摘　　要：2020年以来新冠疫情对全球经济造成巨大冲击,2020–2021年供暖季亚洲液化天然气(LNG)现货价格大幅上涨,极大增加了我国天然气的采购成本,对我国冬季天然气保供造成巨大挑战。供应、需求和市场机制因素均对本轮亚洲LNG现货价格暴涨起到拉动作用,反映了国际LNG现货市场体量较小,价格易受到外部因素冲击。为保障我国天然气供应,降低采购价格波动风险,应抢抓市场时机,丰富采购计价方式,加强普氏MOC窗口参与度,择机进行套期保值,加强运输船货协同。在国际LNG贸易市场化程度进一步上升、我国天然气需求不断增加的背景下,探究2020–2021年供暖季现货价格异常波动的原因对于理解国际LNG市场的运行和保障我国能源安全具有现实意义。Despite the huge impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on global economic development since 2020,Asian LNG spot prices for the heating season of 2020-2021 have increased significantly,with the Platts JKM price index representing Asian LNG spot prices rising as high as$32/MMBtu.The surge of spot price not only greatly increases the purchase cost of natural gas in China,but also poses a great challenge to the supply of natural gas in winter.Supply,demand and market mechanism factors all played a driving role in this round of Asian LNG spot price surge,reflecting the small size of the international LNG spot market,and the price is vulnerable to external factors.In order to guarantee China's natural gas supply and reduce the risk of purchase price fluctuation,it is necessary to seize the market opportunity,enrich the purchase pricing method,strengthen the participation of Platts MOC window,choose the opportunity to carry out hedging,and strengthen the coordination between shipping ships and cargoes.In the background of the further increase of the marketization of international LNG trade and the continuous increase of China's natural gas demand,it is of great practical significance to explore the causes of the abnormal fluctuation of spot price of heating season in 2020-2021 for the understanding of the operation of international LNG market and the guarantee of China's energy security.

关 键 词：供暖季 液化天然气现货 新冠疫情 价格异动 能源安全 

分 类 号：F764.1[经济管理—产业经济] F416.22